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Good morning,
This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s begin.
Reporting Period: November 20-24, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. The G20 Summit convened in South Africa with an agenda of “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability,” but at least five heads of state, including leaders from the U.S., China, Russia, Mexico, and Argentina, chose not to attend. Some are sending high-level replacements, while others are absent due to political disputes, domestic instability, or concerns with international law.
2. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that the Trump administration would welcome Germany eventually assuming the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) position. German Lieutenant General Wolfgang Wien responded cautiously, stating Germany’s interest in larger defense responsibilities but acknowledging that SACEUR has traditionally remained “U.S. territory.” The comment marks a rare public discussion about shifting NATO’s top military command away from Washington.
3. On November 24, the U.S. formally designated Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). The distinction helps expand Washington’s military authorities against cartel-linked targets in the region. Similarly, it is reported that Operation Southern Spear is entering a “new phase,” potentially involving covert actions aimed at removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Meanwhile, the FAA issued a rare NOTAM restricting access to Venezuelan airspace until February 19, 2026.
4. On November 21, reports of a 28-point peace framework allegedly authored by U.S. and Russian officials was presented to Kyiv. Ukraine strongly rejected the terms as skewed toward Russia. Amid mounting pressure, Washington reportedly threatened to cut military aid and intelligence support if the plan was not accepted by November 27. As of Nov 23, high-level talks are underway in Geneva with European allies demanding a seat and rewriting of the proposal, while Russian officials have floated the possibility of a Trump–Putin summit.
G20 Convenes In South Africa, Multiple World Leaders Skip Attending
Summary
The G20 Summit convened in South Africa with an agenda of “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability,” but at least five heads of state, including leaders from the U.S., China, Russia, Mexico, and Argentina, chose not to attend. Some are sending high-level replacements, while others are absent due to political disputes, domestic instability, or concerns with international law.
Findings
Background: The Group of 20 (G20) is a 19-member group, plus the European and African Unions, that represents nearly 85% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 75% of international trade, and two-thirds of the global population (World Economic Forum, Newsweek).
The 2026 G20 Summit will convene in Miami, Florida (Newsweek).G20 South Africa: This year’s G20 Summit is in South Africa, and the agenda is “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability” (G20).
Low Attendance: At least 5 leaders are skipping the G20 Summit in South Africa, and for various reasons.
President Trump (🇺🇸): Not attending due to the genocide and land seizures of white Afrikaners by the South African government (Newsweek).
President Xi (🇨🇳): Xi is sending Premier Li Qiang in his place (Xinhua).
President Putin (🇷🇺): Officially not attending to focus on the “Special military operation in Ukraine,” but speculation is that due to South Africa’s membership with the International Criminal Court (ICC), Putin fears arrest (Kremlin, TASS). Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Maxim Oreshkin will represent Russia (Kremlin).
President Milei (🇦🇷): Speculation is that Milei is mirroring Trump’s decision to skip the summit (Buenos Aires Times). Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno is likely to represent Argentina (Buenos Aires Times).
Why This Matters
Low attendance weakens the G20’s credibility at a time when global inflation, trade disruptions, and conflict require diplomatic activity to create solutions. Generally, the low attendance, with a poor agenda and questionable venue, signals a deterioration of respect and usefulness of multilateral forums.
U.S. Envoy Suggests Germany Inherit NATO Command
Summary
At the 2025 Berlin Security Conference, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that the Trump administration would welcome Germany eventually assuming the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) position. German Lieutenant General Wolfgang Wien responded cautiously, stating Germany’s interest in larger defense responsibilities but acknowledging that SACEUR has traditionally remained “U.S. territory.” The comment marks a rare public discussion about shifting NATO’s top military command away from Washington.
Findings
Background: The Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) is one of NATO’s two strategic commands and is responsible for the conduct of NATO military operations (NATO). Historically, the command has been granted to Americans, with Dwight D. Eisenhower being the first SACEUR in 1951 (NATO).
The current SACEUR is General Alexus Grynkewich (NATO).2025 Berlin Security Conference: From November 18 to 19, 2025, the 24th Berlin Security Conference convened at the Vienna House Andel’s Berlin (Berlin Security Conference).
At the conference, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that it is the Trump administration’s desire that Germany take over the SACUER command in the future (The Independent).
“I look forward to the day when Germany comes to the United States and says that we’re ready to take over the supreme allied commander position. I think we’re a long way away from that, but I look forward to those discussions.”
Germany’s Position: Lieutenant General Wolfgang Wien, who was sitting next to Whitaker, voiced some hesitancy (The Independent). Wien suggested that Germany is eager to take on a greater role in NATO and European defense, but that SACEUR command is “U.S. territory” (The Independent).
Why This Matters
This is an interesting development, as the United States should not want to yield the SACEUR command to European counterparts. And while Germany’s diplomatic hesitancy is reflective of the Bundeswehr’s weakness, it is probably warranted.
The idea behind the U.S. retaining the SACEUR command, aside from tradition, is that the United States has the preponderance of military assets in Europe (including nuclear weapons), which means American commanders should retain control of American forces and conduct operations and engagements in accordance with American foreign policy objectives and the regional Rules of Engagement.
For reasons of soft power, principle, and executing the “Kill Chain,” we should absolutely retain the SACEUR command.
New Terror Designation On Cartel, NOTAM In Venezuela Suggests Escalation In Region
Summary
On November 24, the U.S. formally designated Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). The distinction helps expand Washington’s military authorities against cartel-linked targets in the region. Similarly, it is reported that Operation Southern Spear is entering a “new phase,” potentially involving covert actions aimed at removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Meanwhile, the FAA issued a rare NOTAM restricting access to Venezuelan airspace until February 19, 2026.
Findings
Cartel Designation: Today, November 24, the Pentagon’s designation of the Venezuelan Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terror Organization goes into effect (U.S. Southern Command). Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated the designation would provide the U.S. military “a whole bunch of new options” in how to engage the cartels in the region (U.S. Southern Command).
“[The terror designation] gives more tools to our [War] Department to give options to [President Donald J. Trump] to ultimately say our hemisphere will not be controlled by narco-terrorists, it will not be controlled by cartels, [and] it will not be controlled by what illegitimate regimes try to push toward the American people. So, it's just about options, and we plan better than any organization in the world here.”
“New Phase” of U.S. Operations: On November 23, Reuters provided an exclusive report claiming that the U.S. military operation in the Caribbean (Operation Southern Spear) will soon enter a “new phase” (Reuters). Reuters reports that U.S. actions will include covert operations aimed at overthrowing Maduro, according to four unnamed U.S. officials (Reuters).
Venezuela NOTAM: On November 21, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a “Notice to Airmen” (NOTAM) for Venezuelan airspace (FAA). The NOTAM advises pilots to exercise increased caution in the Maiquetia airspace until February 19, 2026 (FAA). The effective altitudes for these control measures are surface to unlimited (FAA).
Why This Matters
Hegseth’s statements imply that U.S. military strikes may soon be expanded to targets within Venezuela, and may include government sites with a known association to the Cartel de los Soles. The Trump administration’s position remains that President Nicolas Maduro is the cartel’s senior leader and has provided the organization freedom to operate in Venezuela and the region (The Guardian, The New York Times).
Additionally, the somewhat rare NOTAM issued over Venezuela (and its duration) suggests that U.S. military operations are going to carry on for the long-term regardless of a conventional escalation.
From an aviation C2 perspective, establishing a NOTAM is significant because by restricting access to an airspace, the U.S. is making it easier for our assets to freely and safely maneuver through the Area of Operations, a massive advantage when establishing air superiority and reducing risk.
Ukraine Peace Talks In Geneva Amid 28-Point Peace Plan Controversy
Summary
On November 21, reports of a 28-point peace framework allegedly authored by U.S. and Russian officials was presented to Kyiv. Ukraine strongly rejected the terms as skewed toward Russia. Amid mounting pressure, Washington reportedly threatened to cut military aid and intelligence support if the plan was not accepted by November 27. As of Nov 23, high-level talks are underway in Geneva with European allies demanding a seat and rewriting of the proposal, while Russian officials have floated the possibility of a Trump–Putin summit.
Findings
28-Point Peace Plan: On November 21, it was reported that a Gaza-like peace proposal, authored in secret by U.S. and Russian officials, was presented to Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy (SOURCE).
Under that leaked plan, Ukraine would have to cede additional territory, drastically reduce its army size, and relinquish certain weapon systems (SOURCE).
On November 23, U.S. Senators called the proposal a Russian “wish list,” a claim that was later refuted on X by Secretary of State Rubio (PBS).
Pressure from Washington: The U.S. has applied intense pressure on Kyiv to accept the plan by November 27, threatening to cut intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries if it refuses (The Washington Post). Additionally, remarks by President Trump via Truth Social suggest poor leadership, a lack of gratitude, and half-measures to weaken Russia by Ukrainian and European leaders, respectively:
Ongoing Diplomacy: On November 23, Ukrainian, European, and American delegations reportedly convened in Geneva, Switzerland, to renegotiate the peace proposal (AP News, ABC News). European leaders strongly rejected the original 28-Point Peace Plan that was leaked, especially regarding Kyiv’s loss of territory, army personnel limitations, Russia’s return to the G8, and the inability to deploy NATO/European peacekeeping forces (CNN, The Guardian).
Following the conclusion of the Geneva session, Secretary Rubio stated progress was made, and that “tremendous progress” was made towards reaching mutual terms (Sky News).
On November 22, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that a bilateral meeting between Putin and Trump is possible (CNBC).
Why This Matters
There has been so much conflicting reporting on this (particularly the 28-point peace plan) that it is hard to get a full measure of the significance. However, Ukraine reportedly establishing some peace terms as an amendment to the drafted plan suggests that Kyiv is opening up to the idea of beginning negotiations with Russia.
Russia, on the other hand, shows no indication of resuming diplomatic talks if its maximalist demands are not met, matched, or entertained.
The high cost of aid and slow diplomacy is clearly frustrating to the Trump administration, which has led to some lingering policy inconsistencies (like flip-flopping on aid, intelligence, sanctions, pro-Ukrainian terms regarding territory, etc.). Those inconsistencies, in turn, have entertained policy divisions in the Western camp, with U.S., UK, German, French, and EU interests losing some cohesion. This is especially true since Russia has little interest in including European leaders in any negotiations, out of fears of overbearing advocacy for Ukrainian interests (regardless of the fact that Ukraine cannot sustain the war on its own).
End Brief
That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading.
To my American readers, have a happy Thanksgiving!
See you Thursday,
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.