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Good morning,
Welcome to another Monday edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review the major updates from the weekend.
Reporting Period: November 13-17, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On November 13, the United States launched Operation Southern Spear. Shortly after, the U.S. also announced it would designate Cartel de los Soles as an FTO with Maduro as its leader. While Trump stated his team may negotiate with Maduro, American military assets have continued to arrive in the region, and strikes on narco vessels have continued.
2. Last week, President Trump hosted Central Asia’s five leaders for a historic summit. The leaders met to discuss trade, infrastructure, critical minerals, and future projects, offering the historically neglected region an alternative to Russian and Chinese influence. Central to the reform is a bipartisan push to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment.
3. Germany is moving toward reintroducing a form of compulsory military service amid growing security concerns, particularly over Russia. This week, the government announced a new Military Service Modernization Act that requires all 18-year-old men to register starting 1 January 2026, with a “needs-based” draft only if voluntary enlistment fails to meet targets. The bill includes mandatory questionnaires, future medical exams, and provisions for a fallback “emergency draft” in case of security crises.
U.S. To Designate Venezuelan Cartel As FTO; Launches Operation Southern Spear
Summary
On November 13, the United States launched Operation Southern Spear. Shortly after, the U.S. also announced it would designate Cartel de los Soles as an FTO with Maduro as its leader. While Trump stated his team may negotiate with Maduro, American military assets have continued to arrive in the region, and strikes on narco vessels have continued.
Findings
Operation Southern Spear: On November 13, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced Operation Southern Spear (The Hill). Hegseth confirmed the operation will be run by a new counternarcotics unit (Joint Task Force Southern Spear) in concert with U.S. Southern Command (The Hill).
The Hill reports that a previous operation under the same name indicates the strikes on cartel vessels will continue, and be carried out or supported by autonomous surface vessels and aircraft (The Hill). The JTF being reportedly structured under the II Marine Expeditionary Force also implies a growing likelihood of conventional military intervention (The Hill).
On November 16, it was confirmed that the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group had arrived in the region (AP News).
Rubio’s Announcement: On November 16, Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that the United States will be designating the Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (Fox News). Rubio also stated that the U.S. would identify Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as the cartel’s leader (Fox News). The designation is expected to take effect on November 24, which could indicate a timeframe for escalation and strikes or other operations inside Venezuela (Fox News).
Trump’s Remarks: On November 17, speaking to reporters, President Trump stated that his administration may engage in diplomacy with the Maduro regime (AP News, X). Previous reporting claimed Maduro offered a deal to resign so long as he would be guaranteed amnesty and quality of life assurances in exile. President Trump previously stated that he had already “made up my mind” regarding military intervention in Venezuela (CBS News).
Narco-Vessel Strikes: On November 15, U.S. Southern Command confirmed that it had conducted another strike on a vessel operated by an FTO in the Caribbean (U.S. Southern Command). This is the 21st strike on narco-vessels in the region by U.S. forces.
Why This Matters
The FTO designation against the Cartel de los Soles, paired with naming Nicolás Maduro as the cartel’s leader, is a big deal. If the U.S. can find a way to frame all of its military action in the region as counterterrorism, it may mean the White House can expand operations without the approval of Congress (similar to how the GWOT was carried out).
Those indicators, along with continued strikes and the arrival of the Gerald Ford, suggest a maximum pressure campaign to get Maduro to resign, or the impending use of force to push him out. Both are more likely every day, especially since the activity is now designated under Operation Southern Spear and will be receiving more intelligence, assets, and tasking.
Trump Takes Steps Towards Deeper Partnership In Central Asia, Rebuffing Russia
Summary
Last week, President Trump hosted Central Asia’s five leaders for a historic summit. The leaders met to discuss trade, infrastructure, critical minerals, and future projects, offering the historically neglected region an alternative to Russian and Chinese influence. Central to the reform is a bipartisan push to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment.
Findings
Background: The Jackson-Vanik Amendment, enacted in 1974, restricts U.S. trade relations with non-market economies that limit emigration rights (Congressional Research Service). Recently, U.S. Senators Jim Risch, Steve Daines, Chris Murphy, and Jeanne Shaheen introduced bipartisan legislation to repeal the amendment, arguing that it now holds back U.S. trade and investment with Central Asian nations (Senate Foreign Relations Committee). The legislation has garnered bipartisan support, as well as support from Central Asia’s leaders.
C-5 Summit: On November 6, President Trump hosted the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the White House (Reuters, Kyiv Post). This meeting occurred under the framework of the C5+1 diplomatic platform, which brings together the U.S. and the five Central Asian republics to deepen cooperation on security, economics, and regional connectivity (Reuters, Kyiv Post). U.S. officials have described the summit as a pivot toward Central Asia, highlighting Washington’s intentions to offer a genuine alternative to Russia and China by reengaging economically and diplomatically (AP News).
Details: At the summit, leaders discussed concrete economic deals, notably partnerships to develop Central Asia’s abundant mineral resources, including rare earths, uranium, and tungsten, key for U.S. strategic supply chains (Reuters, Kyiv Post). The U.S. also signaled support for transport and trade corridors, particularly the “Middle Corridor,” to strengthen Eurasian connectivity and help Central Asian states diversify away from overreliance on Moscow or Beijing, potentially a direct challenge to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (Caspian Post). Additionally, trade legislation to repeal Jackson-Vanik is directly tied to the summit agenda: the repeal would grant Central Asian nations more stable, permanent trade status with the U.S., facilitating deeper investment and economic integration.
Why This Matters
Russia’s influence in Central Asia is eroding under the strain of its war in Ukraine, while China is accelerating its economic and security footprint through the Belt and Road Initiative and growing military ties. By moving to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment and elevating the C5+1 summit to a White House–level engagement, Washington is stating that it intends to compete directly with Moscow and Beijing for long-term influence over Eurasia’s critical transit routes, energy reserves, and rare-earth minerals. It also challenges the cohesion between Moscow and Beijing.
For the Central Asian states, U.S. engagement provides leverage. As Russia’s security guarantees weaken and China’s economic dominance grows, these governments want a third pillar to balance against both. The U.S. is attempting to fill that gap.
There is potentially a lot to be exploited here, especially when we consider Central Asia’s proximity to Russia and China. There could very well be future security deals to follow.
Germany To Bring Back Compulsory Military Service Amid Low Recruitment, Defense Resurgence Efforts
Summary
Germany is moving toward reintroducing a form of compulsory military service amid growing security concerns, particularly over Russia. This week, the government announced a new Military Service Modernization Act that requires all 18-year-old men to register starting 1 January 2026, with a “needs-based” draft only if voluntary enlistment fails to meet targets. The bill includes mandatory questionnaires, future medical exams, and provisions for a fallback “emergency draft” in case of security crises.
Findings
Recruitment Pressure: In May 2025, Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stated that the Bundeswehr’s recruitment needs are not being met, and mandatory conscription would return as early as January 1, 2026 (DW). At that time, officials assessed that Germany needed an additional 100,000 troops to meet its new security targets and NATO obligations (DW).
Draft Legislation: In August, the German government approved a bill that proposed adding incentives to boost volunteer recruitment (Euronews). On November 13, it was reported that new legislation would institute “Bedarfswehrpflicht” or roughly “necessary conscription” through a lottery system (Visegrad). For now, German conscription is limited to German males, with females having the option to make themselves eligible for drafting. Reporting suggests medically qualified males will be asked if they are interested in service, with a draft being implemented if recruitment numbers are not met (Visegrad).
Why This Matters
Germany is looking to become Europe’s leading military force, so compulsory service may be necessary as Berlin tries to recover from years of retaining a subpar fighting force. There are some advantages and disadvantages.
The first advantage is that Germany may soon have more fighting men, and therefore enhance its inherent deterrence value for itself and for Europe. It will also help some German men earn an income, learn skills, and potentially advance careers.
A negative aspect is that service is likely to remain unpopular in Germany, and could lead to protests, civil discontent, or mass criticism of the already unsteady coalition government.
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.