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Good morning,
Got another Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief for you.
This time, I am blending the Why This Matters into the Findings for a more narrative explanation.
Please feel free to reply and let me know if you prefer this format, or take the poll at the end!
Reporting Period: January 29 - February 2, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. In late January, various defense contractors announced new procurement projects. The projects mark start improvements to US air defense, Command and Control, and long-range strike capabilities.
2. As of February 1, American and Iranian officials have not agreed to convene for nuclear negotiations despite claims that talks are ongoing. President Trump previously warned that if a deal was not reached, US assets would strike targets in Iran. The ultimatum came as Iran continues to experience large-scale protests and regime instability.
New Defense Procurements Likely To Boost US C2, Air Defense Capabilities
Summary
In late January, various defense contractors announced new procurement projects. The projects mark start improvements to US air defense, Command and Control, and long-range strike capabilities.
Findings and Analysis
THAAD Interceptors: On January 30, Lockheed Martin confirmed it has agreed to a framework with the Department of War (DOW) to “quadruple THAAD interceptor production” by “building on our PAC-3 MSE acceleration” (Lockheed Martin).
On January 8, Lockheed Martin confirmed the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement deal with the DOW, which will boost annual PAC-3 production to 2,000 units per year (Lockheed Martin).
The framework for THAAD production is also in line with the 2026 NDAA, which allotted expanded budgets for defense acquisitions (and specifically THAAD) (The Intel Brief). The US Army plans to field 25 THAAD systems (The Intel Brief).
But no Ground-Based Air Defense System is operationally capable without an advanced Command and Control (C2) ecosystem.
MIDS JTRS Terminals: On January 28, BAE Systems, Inc. announced that it has been awarded a $248 million contract to produce and “deliver hundreds of MIDS JTRS radio terminals to US forces and allies” (BAE Systems).
The Multifunctional Information Distribution System Joint Tactical Radio System, or MIDS JTRS, provides jam-resistant Link-16 connectivity to players with line-of-sight (LOS) voice, video, and data communications capabilities (BAE Systems).
In C2 terms, this means an enhanced Common Operational Picture (COP) for controlling allied assets, sharing data, and producing targeting options against hostiles.
BAE Systems confirms that “more than 45 US and international platform types” will be delivered (BAE Systems).
L3Harris Red Wolf: On January 30, L3Harris Technologies confirmed it has been selected by the US Naval Air Systems Command to develop and deliver Red Wolf vehicles (L3Harris). The Red Wolf vehicles will be for the US Marine Corps’ Precision Attack Strike Munition program (L3Harris). The Red Wolf will provide the Marine Corps with a modern long-range precision strike capability (L3Harris).
US, Israel, Iran Tensions Continue Amid Conflicting Reports On Negotiations
Summary
As of February 1, American and Iranian officials have not agreed to convene for nuclear negotiations despite claims that talks are ongoing. President Trump previously warned that if a deal was not reached, US assets would strike targets in Iran. The ultimatum came as Iran continues to experience large-scale protests and regime instability.
Findings and Analysis
Background: Iran has experienced anti-government protests since December 2025 (The Intel Brief). President Trump early on voiced his support for the anti-Khamenei protestors, and suggested the US would intervene if protests were met with lethal force (The Intel Brief).
On January 26, it was reported that Trump had received intelligence briefings indicating historically low regime stability in Iran (The Intel Brief). On January 28, Trump confirmed the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) was en route to the CENTCOM area of responsibility, and presumably, Iran’s coast (The Intel Brief). Trump also issued an ultimatum, stating that the US would strike targets in Iran if a nuclear deal is not negotiated (The Intel Brief).
As it stands, US or Israeli officials have not publicly confirmed that nuclear negotiations are ongoing. Additionally, protests in Iran have continued and are being suppressed by Iranian security forces with lethal means, with death toll estimates into the tens of thousands. Both of these factors indicate an increased likelihood of US-Israeli strikes in Iran, similar to Operation Midnight Hammer.
Negotiations: It is likely that informal nuclear talks are occurring between US and Iranian officials, with Israeli input. Neither the US or Isreal has confirmed, at high levels, that talks are taking place, but Secretary Larijani of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that talks are taking place or being organized (X).
It is uncertain when negotiations will occur, at what level, and with what degree of vigor. Previous negotiations between European and Iranian officials after Operation Midnight Hammer did not yield an agreement or resolution. On January 30, Flight Radar 24 captured the Iranian presidential aircraft en route to Moscow, likely with Larijani seeking diplomatic, intelligence, and air defense support from Moscow (Rage Intel). Similarly, China has been observed publishing the location of US assets in the region (X).
Likelihood of Future Strikes: On February 1, Reuters reports that Israeli officials were meeting with American decision-makers at the Pentagon (Reuters). The meeting suggests operational coordination for future strikes, and determining the go/no-go criteria.
Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that future strikes on Iran would lead to a “regional war” (Al Jazeera).
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
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— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.