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Good morning,
Welcome back to another Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s start.
Reporting Period: January 22-26, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On January 24, the Pentagon published the 2026 National Defense Strategy. The new NDS outlines America’s strategic focus, with particular emphasis on the Western Hemisphere, China, and partner burden-sharing.
2. President Trump has rolled back hostile rhetoric related to the forceful seizure of Greenland. As it stands, American, Greenlandic, and Danish diplomats will soon convene to negotiate a deal that meets American and NATO security goals while Greenland retains its sovereignty.
3. On January 23, American, Ukrainian, and Russian diplomats met in the United Arab Emirates. The parties convened for talks to end the war, marking the first trilateral meeting of its kind since the beginning of the war.
Pentagon Published 2026 National Defense Strategy
Summary
On January 24, the Pentagon published the 2026 National Defense Strategy. The new NDS outlines America’s strategic focus, with particular emphasis on the Western Hemisphere, China, and partner burden-sharing.
Findings
Background: The National Defense Strategy (NDS) is the Department of Defense’s plan and guidance for implementing the President’s National Security Strategy (NSS) (DOD Historical Office). On December 4, 2025, the White House published a new NSS, emphasizing greater focus on South America and China, and less focus on Europe and NATO (The Intel Brief).
2026 NDS: On January 24, 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) published the 2026 National Defense Strategy (DOD). The NDS marks a shift in strategic priorities, geographic focus, and military management. The primary strategic goals are to:
“Defend the U.S. Homeland”
“Deter China in the Indo-Pacific Through Stength, Not Confrontation”
“Increase Burden-Sharing with U.S. Allies and Partners”
“Supercharge the U.S. Defense Industrial Base”
The NDS defines the “security environment (i.e. the primary threats, risks, and concerns) in the following categories:
Homeland and Hemisphere: The 2026 NDS, much in line with the NSS, prioritizes border security, counternarcotics, counterterrorism, and defense and deterrence in the Western Hemisphere (DOD). It perpetuates the Trump admin’s resurgence of the principles of the Monroe Doctrine and Roosevelt Corollary (DOD). The NDS mentions Operation Southern Spear and Operation Absolute Resolve, indicating their successes as a sign of new operational precedent and strategic prioritization (DOD).
Geographically, this policy will focus on the southern border, the Arctic (including Greenland), the Gulf of America, the Panama Canal, and “locations farther south” (DOD).People’s Republic of China (PRC): The NDS frames China as the United States’ key competitor whose military growth and modernization is approaching near-peer status (DOD). The NDS directs the Pentagon and military services to “maintain a favorable balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific… to ensure that neither China nor anyone else can dominate us or our allies” (DOD).
“Indeed, the speed, scale, and quality of China’s historic military buildup speak for themselves, including forces designed for operations in the Western Pacific as well as those capable of reaching targets much farther away… Were China—oranyone else, for that matter—to dominate this broad and crucial region, it would be able to effectively veto Americans’ access to the world’s economic center of gravity, with enduring implications for our nation’s economic prospects, including our ability to reindustrialize.”
Russia: The NDS identifies that “Russia will remain a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern members for the foreseeable future,” and that the DOD and military services must “ensure that U.S. forces are prepared to defend against Russian threats to the U.S. homeland,” notably nuclear, undersea, space, and cyber threats (DOD). The NDS confirms that “we are and will remain engaged in Europe” (DOD).
“Moscow is in no position to make a bid for European hegemony.”
Iran: Washington’s priority is ensuring “that Iran will not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons” (DOD). The NDS warns that Iran appears to be reconstituting conventional, nuclear, and proxy capabilities (DOD). The NDS cites Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Rough Rider as resounding successes, indicating them as future operational models.
Burden Sharing: One of the DOD’s priorities is to help incentivize “allies to be prepared for the possibility that one or more potential opponents might act together in a coordinated or opportunistic fashion across multiple theaters” (DOD). This means ensuring allies and partners “invest properly in their defenses, consistent with the new global standard… to deter potential opponents” (DOD).
Why This Matters
The 2026 NDS is significant because it formalizes the U.S. military’s strategic priorities in relation to the NSS and Trump’s foreign policy rhetoric. The focus and objectives are not surprising though. The admin (and recent operations) have reinforced these concepts and geographic regions as the new focus, but seeing it formalized in a policy document might be sobering, especially for Europe, which perceives an American abandonment of NATO.
Pressuring partners to be responsible for their own security, while working to contain China and the Western Hemisphere, is a good policy direction.
Trump Suggests Greenland Framework Reached, Rolls Back Tariff And Invasion Threats
Summary
President Trump has rolled back hostile rhetoric related to the forceful seizure of Greenland. As it stands, American, Greenlandic, and Danish diplomats will soon convene to negotiate a deal that meets American and NATO security goals while Greenland retains its sovereignty.
Findings
Background: On January 21, President Trump ruled out a military invasion and forceful takeover of Greenland (The Intel Brief). Trump stated that an initial deal framework had been developed with the help of NATO Secretary General Rutte (The Intel Brief). Early reporting suggested that the framework includes “small pockets of land” for the US, trade of minerals, Golden Dome coordination, and American investment (The Intel Brief).
Framework Negotiations: Trump confirmed that Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and special envoy Witkoff will lead an American delegation during negotiations for a Greenland deal (BBC, DW).
Danish Foreign Minister Rasmussen is open to negotiations and urged parties to “sit down and find out how we can address American security concerns in the Arctic,” indicating some support for the early framework (BBC). Rasmussen also suggested Denmark and European allies could take a greater role in supporting the Golden Dome (BBC).
Greenland’s Prime Minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, stated that he is “ready to negotiate a better partnership” with the United States (DW).
It is uncertain when negotiations will take place.
Why This Matters
It is likely that a trilateral meeting will occur in February. The framework is likely to be agreed to by all parties, as it is basically an expansion of the existing relationship the US has with Greenland.
US, Russia, Ukraine Hold First Trilateral Talks Since Start Of War
Summary
On January 23, American, Ukrainian, and Russian diplomats met in the United Arab Emirates. The parties convened for talks to end the war, marking the first trilateral meeting of its kind since the beginning of the war.
Findings
Background: The United States has previously held bilateral talks with Russia, and various multilateral talks with Ukraine and European allies.
In August 2025, Trump hosted Russian President Putin in Alaska, but a ceasefire or peace deal was not made.
In November 2025, Trump presented Zelenskyy a 28-point peace framework that was later revised and resubmitted to Trump.Triilateral Meeting: On January 23, an American delegation led by special envoy Witkoff met with Ukrainian and Russian diplomats in the United Arab Emirates (ABC News, CNN). Witkoff stated that while the talks did not yield an agreement, they were “constructive, and plans were made to continue conversations” this week (X). In an evening address to the public, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed that the diplomats were “talking about the parameters of ending the war” (ABC News).
On January 24, Reuters reporting suggested the talks had broken down following a Russian overnight bombing of Ukraine (Reuters).
Why This Matters
The likelihood of a long-term ceasefire or lasting peace deal is unlikely in the immediate future, but could happen come Spring or Summer.
The key factors influencing a peace deal are Russia’s desire to acquire “maximalist gains” in the form of territory and political concessions. Those are more related to NATO expansion and Ukrainian security guarantees, as well as Russia’s reintegration into the global community. Moscow still believes its battlefield position and defense industrial output is in its favor, but the Russian economy continues to struggle. Wartime figures also indicate that Russia has lost over 1,000,000 soldiers in Ukraine.
For Ukraine, Kyiv remains unwilling to give up large territories despite Western military support and a general frontline stalemate.
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
See you Thursday,
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.