Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning,
This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief, and it includes a significant analysis of the recent operation in Venezuela.
Let’s begin.
Reporting Period: January 1-5, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On January 3, the United States conducted a raid to capture President Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela. The raid was supported by space, cyber, and air assets and included strikes on various sites in Venezuela. Maduro and his wife remain in U.S. custody and will face trial in New York. Trump and his senior officials addressed the media on January 3, detailing the operation and strategic objectives for the future of Venezuela.
2. On December 28, mass protests erupted in Iran. The protests began following the Rial’s crash but have since evolved into anti-regime demonstrations. President Trump threatened intervention if the Khamenei regime responds violently to protests.
3. This week, President Zelenskyy appointed General Budanov, 39, as his new Chief of Staff. Budanov has a military intelligence background and has been integral in expanding Ukraine’s intelligence and sabotage operations inside Russia. His appointment suggests Ukraine is preparing to manage long-term conflict or hybrid warfare with Russia.
U.S. Strikes Venezuela, Captures Maduro
Summary
On January 3, the United States conducted a raid to capture President Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela. The raid was supported by space, cyber, and air assets and included strikes on various sites in Venezuela. Maduro and his wife remain in U.S. custody and will face trial in New York. Trump and his senior officials addressed the media on January 3, detailing the operation and strategic objectives for the future of Venezuela.
Findings
Background: Various developments reported by The Intel Brief from 2025 estimated that President Trump and the United States would conduct an operation of this nature:
On August 19, the United States began deploying significant military assets to the Caribbean to shape future counternarcotics operations (The Intel Brief). On October 2, Trump notified the U.S. Congress that the U.S. is engaged in a “non-international armed conflict” with cartels (The Intel Brief). On October 6, the U.S. and Venezuela formally ceased diplomatic outreach (The Intel Brief).
On October 16, President Trump authorized the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to conduct operations in Venezuela “to prepare for strikes on cartel sites and…the removal of the Maduro regime” (The Intel Brief).
On November 13, the Department of Defense created Joint Task Force Southern Spear and launched Operation Southern Spear to expand counternarcotics and law enforcement operations in the region (The Intel Brief).
On November 19, Republican legislators introduced two bills to expand Customs and Border Protection operations abroad (The Intel Brief). Specifically, H.R. 4071 would allow CBP units to provide support to intelligence and anti-trafficking operations abroad (The Intel Brief).
On November 29, President Trump confirmed that the United States had closed Venezuela’s airspace, creating a de facto no-fly zone (The Intel Brief). A day later, Trump spoke with Maduro and urged him to flee South America (The Intel Brief).
On December 16, President Trump designated the Maduro regime a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) (The Intel Brief). In the same address, Trump announced the U.S. would begin seizing sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela (The Intel Brief).
Operation Absolute Resolve: On January 3, American joint forces conducted Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela (Department of Defense, ABC News). The operation included the insertion of ground forces who captured President Maduro and his wife at their residence in Caracas, Venezuela (Department of Defense, ABC News).
Chief of Staff General Caine offered details on the operation during a January 3 press conference:
The operation was planned and rehearsed for months and required “every component of our joint force… working in unison” and with law enforcement and intelligence agencies (AP News).
More than 150 aircraft participated in Operation Absolute Resolve to facilitate the ground team’s entry into Caracas, Venezuela (AP News).
The operation was planned with intelligence gathered about Maduro’s routines and permissible weather conditions (AP News).
President Trump authorized the operation which prompted assets to deploy from 20 bases. Space, cyber, and kinetic fires all played a role in allowing ground forces to enter Caracas. Venezuelan air defenses were disabled to allow helicopters to enter and exit the airspace (AP News). OSINT analysis reveals Russian air defenses supplied to Venezuela were destroyed during the raid (Instagram).
Operators entered Maduro’s compound just after 0100 EST (AP News).
One U.S. aircraft received fire at the Maduro compound, but was able to return to base (AP News).
There were no American casualties during the operation despite “multiple self-defense engagements” during extraction (AP News).
Maduro and his wife were embarked on the USS Iwo Jima for transportation to the United States (AP News).
Indictment: On January 3, Attorney General Bondi confirmed that Nicolas Maduro and his Wife (both of whom were captured during the operations) have been indicted in the Southern District of New York and await trial (X).
Delays: One Fox News correspondent reports that the operation to capture Maduro was delayed due to weather, and was originally scheduled for late December 2025 (X).
Trump’s Address to Media: At around 1140 EST on January 3, President Trump addressed media from Mar-a-Lago, Florida (AP News). Trump was accompanied by senior officials, notably Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, and Chief of Staff General Caine (AP News). In his statement, Trump noted some significant details:
The U.S. will “run Venezuela” until a judicious political handover can be ensured (AP News).
The U.S. will send in its oil companies and spend “billions” to rebuild Venezuela’s oil infrastructure (AP News).
The U.S. forces in the region were staged for a “second wave” to respond if necessary, and that those assets remain on standby to enter Venezuela (AP News).
President Trump confirmed to reporters that his administration is currently “talking to people” to form a new Venezuelan government, and that the U.S. will soon begin to enforce to new governance and reconstruction of the oil industry (AP News).
Trump stated he has not been in contact with Maria Machado, indicating the U.S. does not plan to install her as Venezuela’s president (AP News). During the presser, Trump stated that his administration had been in contact with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and that she will cooperate with U.S. interests and, potentially, run a new democratic government (Reuters).Colombia: President Trump warned that Colombian President Petro “has to watch his ass” due to the cocaine trade originating in Colombia. Following Operation Absolute Resolve, Colombia deployed its forces to the Venezuelan border, and Petro denounced the operation (AP News).
An Intel Brief source in Colombia told me that Colombia’s armed forces are “reporting for duty” and observing National Liberation Army (ELN) actions, such as them crossing into Venezuela to coordinate actions with their cartel allies.
Why This Matters
As more details of the operation are revealed to the public, we should consider what the U.S. strategic objectives in Venezuela are, and what may happen next. This operation is historic and reshapes our foreign policy precedent. It should be considered as a glimpse of what American foreign policy for the whole region may look like for the foreseeable future.
While Maduro remains in the United States for trial, we cannot be certain that the United States’ objectives will be entirely fulfilled, or how soon. Initial reporting and OSINT data suggested the Venezuelan Defense Minister, Vladimir Lopez, had assumed the presidency and formed a de facto government loyal to Maduro (CNBC, WXOW).
Later on January 3, Vice President Rodriguez announced that she had assumed the presidency and would be taking over the Venezuelan government (Instagram). On January 4, the Lopez and the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense confirmed their support for Rodríguez, which suggests a new Venezuelan government could soon be formed and operational.
Though less likely now, the formation of a military junta government with a firm grip on the armed forces could urge the United States to deploy its “second wave” of forces to intervene and begin creating the new U.S.-aligned government and oil infrastructure it desires.
Reporting has shown Venezuelans and their international diaspora celebrating the capture of Maduro, which also suggests that the nation could experience political violence and demonstrations if a U.S.-backed, democratically elected government is not established.
Additionally, the fact that factions in Colombia and Cuba are complicit in Maduro’s regime or the narcotics trade suggests Washington may use the operation in Caracas as a model for future intervention across South America.
Finally, American custody of Maduro should also be analyzed. Maduro will stand trial and face a legal verdict, but he may be valuable in pursuit of other foreign policy objectives. For example, Russia, China, and Iran would like to see the Maduro regime remain in Venezuela, and his freedom would retain a perpetual claim on the Venezuelan presidency. It would not be in the U.S. interest for Maduro to walk free, but the Trump administration could offer an exchange of custody to advance other interests, such as the Ukraine peace deal.
Trump Threatens Intervention In Iran Amid Ongoing Protests, Economic Turmoil
Summary
On December 28, mass protests erupted in Iran. The protests began following the Rial’s crash but have since evolved into anti-regime demonstrations. President Trump threatened intervention if the Khamenei regime responds violently to protests.
Findings
Background: On December 28, following the Rial’s crash, merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar organized a strike that has since grown into large-scale protests nationwide (BBC). BBC reports that demonstrations have been verified in Karaj, Hamedan, Qeshm, Malard, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Shiraz, and Yazd (BBC). Demonstrations against Iran’s ruling clerics and Supreme Leader Khamenei have been observed (BBC, NBC News).
Comment: More background information can be viewed here.
U.S. Intervention: On January 2, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States would intervene in Iran if regime security forces “[shots] and violently kills peaceful protestors” (The White House). Trump implied that U.S. assets in the region are “ready to go” if ordered to conduct strikes or other operations (The White House).
Iranian Response: On January 2, following President Trump’s remarks, the Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Iranian parliament) Mohammad Ghalibaf, stated on X that if the United States intervenes on behalf of Iranian protestors, that “all American centers and forces across the entire region will be legitimate targets for us” (X).
Why This Matters
Given the ongoing protests, and the Trump admin’s clear willingness to engage in regime change, it is likely that protests in Iran will continue to threaten the legitimacy of the Khamenei regime.
It is uncertain if the U.S. will actually intervene in Tehran, but regime change could occur from the grassroots protests that have erupted.
U.S. and Iranian relations are likely to continue to deteriorate, especially given the interventionist rhetoric from Washington.
Zelenskyy Assigns New Chief Of Staff
Summary
This week, President Zelenskyy appointed General Budanov, 39, as his new Chief of Staff. Budanov has a military intelligence background and has been integral in expanding Ukraine’s intelligence and sabotage operations inside Russia. His appointment suggests Ukraine is preparing to manage long-term conflict or hybrid warfare with Russia.
Findings
Background: In November 2025, Andrii Yermak resigned as President Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff due to corruption charges imposed after a raid and investigation (ABC News). Yermak was charged with “graft in Ukraine’s energy sector” and undermined American support for aid to Ukraine and peace negotiations (ABC News).
New Chief of Staff: On January 3, President Zelenskyy reportedly appointed General Kyrylo Budanov as his Chief of Staff (DW, ABC News). Budanov has run Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR) since 2020 and is credited with orchestrating “many successful operations targeting Russian military assets” (ABC News). Budanov is credited with expanding the GUR’s ability to conduct “intelligence, sabotage, and special operations aimed at degrading Russia’s military capabilities far beyond the front lines” (ABC News).
Why This Matters
Budanov’s appointment, backed by military and intelligence experience, signals Zelenskyy’s intent to shift priorities to foreign policy, defense, and security. In some ways, this suggests Ukraine is preparing for continued, long-term conflict with Russia and that a peace deal or ceasefire is still far from reality.
Even with a peace deal, Budanov’s appointment suggests Kyiv is preparing to defend against Russian espionage and hybrid warfare operations.
Budanov’s previous experience working with U.S. negotiators has also likely influenced his appointment.
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.