Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning,
Welcome to a new week. Let’s review the major geopolitical updates from the weekend.
Reporting Period: February 5-9, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On February 6, President Trump signed various executive orders. Two of those EOs address reciprocal tariffs targeting Russia and Iran. Another addresses DHS’s ability to access and share criminal records for travelers and immigrants. The EOs reinforce Trump’s habit of using executive powers to shape and enforce foreign policy goals.
2. On February 5, President Trump stated that the New START treaty with Russia should not be renewed. Trump proposed a new treaty be organized. Trump’s statement was made despite US and Russian diplomats reportedly agreeing to adhere to the New START after its expiration.
3. President Trump has stated the US will enforce its ability to militarily access Diego Garcia. The UK and Mauritius are negotiating a handover of sovereignty over the Chagos Island chain. Diego Garcia, one island in the chain, is geopolitically relevant due to its proximity to India, Africa, the Middle East, and China.
REMINDER: Trump, Netanyahu To Meet This Week
President Trump will host Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House on Wednesday, February 11, 2026 (PBS). The pair will likely discuss progress made on nuclear negotiations, the status of civil protests, and the stability of the Khamenei regime. Both Israel and the US have reportedly planned joint military strikes on Iran if negotiations fail (PBS). On February 5, the US Embassy told American citizens to leave Iran (X).
Trump Executive Orders Address Tariffs, NatSec Threats
Summary
On February 6, President Trump signed various executive orders. Two of those EOs address reciprocal tariffs targeting Russia and Iran. Another addresses DHS’s ability to access and share criminal records for travelers and immigrants. The EOs reinforce Trump’s habit of using executive powers to shape and enforce foreign policy goals.
Findings and Analysis
On February 6, President Trump published various Executive Orders (EOs) intended to define threats to American national security.
Russia’s Energy Market: The EO titled “Modifying Duties to Address Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation” modifies tariffs imposed on India in EO 14329, duties that were instituted as a result of India purchasing Russian energy products (The White House). The February 6 executive order eliminates the ad valorem tariffs imposed on India, citing India’s commitment to purchase American energy instead (The White House).
Background: Executive Order 14329, titled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation,” was originally published in August 2025 (Federal Register). This EO imposed tariffs and economic pressures on India, as well as established monitoring and reporting authorities, and largely targeted Russia’s energy industry to weaken its revenue streams funding the war in Ukraine (Federal Register).
Comment: On February 5, US European Command (EUCOM) confirmed that it has agreed to “reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue” with the Russian Federation (EUCOM). The Russo-American military dialogue was suspended in 2021 (EUCOM). Trilateral negotiations in the UAE established the resumption of dialogue and reopened a channel for contact between the Commander of US EUCOM (in this case, General Grynkewich) and senior Russian and Ukrainian officials (EUCOM).
Iran: President Trump signed an executive order, titled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Iran,” which expands on executive orders dating back to 1995 (The White House). This EO imposes additional tariffs on products from Iran, as well as on products arriving in the US from Iran via a third party (The White House).
Comment: As Iran continues to experience nationwide anti-regime protests, and US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled, new tariffs can be interpreted as an attempt to further destabilize Iran and pressure regime change short of using military force (an option the Trump administration remains ready to utilize).
DHS and Immigration: President Trump signed an EO, titled “Protecting the National Security and Welfare of the United States and its Citizens from Criminal Actors and Other Public Safety Threats,” which grants the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) access to Criminal History Record Information (CHRI) retained by the Department of Justice (The White House). The EO also allows the Secretary of Homeland Security to exchange CHRI with border security personnel (The White House). Finally, the EO also allows CHRI to be exchanged with authorities who participate in the Visa Waiver Program (VWP), or who are otherwise considered “trusted allies” (The White House).
Comment: The EO is advancing the US’s ability to be proactive with immigration and travel to the United States, with enhanced access to records theoretically posturing DHS personnel to turn away violent criminals or foreign agents before they enter the country.
Trump Proposes New Nuclear Treaty, Rejects Extending New START
Summary
On February 5, President Trump stated that the New START treaty with Russia should not be renewed. Trump proposed a new treaty be organized. Trump’s statement was made despite US and Russian diplomats reportedly agreeing to adhere to the New START after its expiration.
Findings and Analysis
Background: In April 2010, the United States (then led by President Obama) and Russia (then led by President Medvedev) signed the New START treaty, a nuclear arms reduction agreement that limited deployed and undeployed nuclear arsenals. The treaty was ratified in February 2011.
New START was renewed in 2021, but was suspended in 2023 after the US determined Russia was in violation of the agreement. In September 2025, President Putin stated Russia intends to adhere to the conditions of New START beyond its expiration, a pledge the Kremlin has not honored (The Intel Brief).
Comment: On February 5, the New START nuclear treaty expired. The Trump administration had no public plans to renew the treaty, and recent rhetoric by President Trump suggests nuclear talks with Russia will have to start from scratch.
Trump’s Proposal: On February 5, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would prefer to negotiate a “new, improved, and modernized” nuclear treaty with Russia, rather than extend New START (X).
Comment: Trump’s comment has been marked by some concern, as mainstream reporting suggested that American and Russian officials negotiated an agreement to continue to observe New START despite its expiration (Axios). Axios reports that the informal agreement was reached on the sidelines of trilateral Ukraine negotiations that took place in the UAE (Axios).
Trump States US Will Retain Base On Diego Garcia Regardless Of UK, Other Decisions
Summary
President Trump has stated the US will enforce its ability to militarily access Diego Garcia. The UK and Mauritius are negotiating a handover of sovereignty over the Chagos Island chain. Diego Garcia, one island in the chain, is geopolitically relevant due to its proximity to India, Africa, the Middle East, and China.
Findings and Analysis
Background: In October 2025, UK Prime Minister Starmer agreed to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands (in the Indian Ocean) to Mauritius (The Hill). However, an initial deal allows for the UK to retain sovereignty over the island of Diego Garcia for 99 years, and includes rent payments to Mauritius (The Hill).
Comment: Conservatives in the UK have questioned Starmer’s decision to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Island chain, especially given its proximity to India, Iran, and the greater Middle East, as well as Mauritius’s growing alignment with China (The Hill).
Note Diego Garcia’s location in relation to Africa’s eastern coast and India’s southern coast. The location gives US naval and air assets a base for forward deployment and extended operational range. Google Earth
Trump Rhetoric: On February 5, President Trump posted on Truth Social that should the lease ever be undermined or threatened, the United States will retain the option to enforce its access to its base on Diego Garcia (X, The Hill). Similarly, Trump’s rhetoric confirms that the US will enforce its presence on any “Base as important as this” (X).
Comment: Trump’s rhetoric on this island chain, which most Americans have never heard of, is important. Trump has used the rhetoric to reinforce a key concept of American foreign policy, which is our desire to retain a global military posture. Trump has reportedly used the dilemma as a justification to acquire Greenland, for example, but the rhetoric could also be extended to enforcing our presence at bases across Europe or Asia as well (NPR).
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
See you on Thursday,
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.
Comments represent the analysis, opinions, and estimates of The Intel Brief writer(s).