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Good morning,
This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Give yourself about 10 minutes to read through it.
Reporting Period: December 18-22, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On December 19, President Putin conducted a four-hour QA, answering questions from an international audience. Putin spoke about the war in Ukraine and future peace prospects, recommitting Russia to seizing Ukrainian territory and threatening war with Europe under certain conditions. Europe also approved a financial loan to Ukraine to sustain Kyiv through 2026.
2. On December 17, Germany’s budget committee approved a massive defense expenditure package. The funds, exclusive of an annual defense budget, will be used to procure modern equipment for the Bundeswehr as Germany pursues recruitment and rearmament. At the same time, Germany’s federal intelligence service may soon be approved to conduct offensive operations, including sabotage.
3. On December 19, Secretary Hegseth and CENTCOM confirmed Operation Hawkeye had been carried out in Syria. The operation targeted dozens of ISIS fighters and strongholds in central Syria, and was framed as retaliation for the death of two American soldiers last week.
Putin QA Suggests Peace Remains Distant In Ukraine, As Europe Pledges Funds To Kyiv
Summary
On December 19, President Putin conducted a four-hour QA, answering questions from an international audience. Putin spoke about the war in Ukraine and future peace prospects, recommitting Russia to seizing Ukrainian territory and threatening war with Europe under certain conditions. Europe also approved a financial loan to Ukraine to sustain Kyiv through 2026.
Findings
Putin QA: On December 19, speaking at a year-end news conference in Moscow, President Putin spoke about the Russian economy, Ukraine, peace proposals, and war in Europe (ABC News).
War With Europe: During the QA, Putin stated that a blockade of the Kaliningrad exclave would lead to “a large-scale armed conflict” with Europe (Ukrainska Pravda). The statement was in response to Lithuanian President Nausėda suggesting the border be closed due to Russian balloon overflight and border crossings (Ukrainska Pravda).
Compromising for Peace: At the beginning of the QA, Putin stated that, from his view, Ukraine does not appear ready for a peace deal, but is ready to engage in dialogue (CBC). Putin reaffirmed he is ready to enact a peace deal based on “the principles I outlined last June [2024]… and by addressing the root causes that led to this crisis” (CBC). Putin maintains that despite Russia’s overly strained economy, the country is in a position of strength based on battlefield conditions and should not compromise on peace terms (CNN, CBC).
Comment: Putin’s conditions include Ukraine foregoing NATO accession, a limited Ukrainian army, and Kyiv withdrawing from (and ceding) four Russian-held regions in Ukraine (The New York Times).
Battlefield Advances: During the QA, Putin stated that in recent months, Russian troops have “fully seized strategic initiative” and will seize more territory in Ukraine (ABC News). Russia’s current objective is to seize all of the Donetsk Oblast, and pressure offensives there through a small, dispersed offensives along the entire frontline (ISW, Binkov’s Battlegrounds).
EU Loan: After failing a unanimous vote to seize Russian assets and use them to fund Ukraine’s war effort, European leaders agreed to provide a $105 billion loan to Kyiv (NPR). The funds will be used to support Ukraine through 2026 (NPR). According to German Chancellor Merz, the funds are a part of a zero-interest loan that should “cover the military and budgetary needs of Ukraine for the two years to come” (NPR).
Why This Matters
Putin’s QA is significant because it suggests Russia may not have any urgency in reaching a ceasefire or peace deal with Ukraine. It also suggests Putin and his senior officials are unwilling to compromise on the conditions for peace, and that the Kremlin will continue to aggressively pursue territorial acquisitons through a peace settlement.
Right now, Russia is trying to balance its wartime economy with battlefield ambitions. Its advantage is a larger and better equiped military, but the Russian economy may be in a worse state than is being reported. For Ukraine, having now secured financial aid to run its economy, military, and infrastructure for another year, will look to continue to outlast Russia’s offensives, retain territory, and pressure a ceasefire. Ukraine’s strategy has not changed much, but we are likely to see more strikes into Russia that target rear bases or key infrastructure.
German Committee Approves Massive Defense Purchase, Intelligence Agency Nearly Approved For Offensive Operations
Summary
On December 17, Germany’s budget committee approved a massive defense expenditure package. The funds, exclusive of an annual defense budget, will be used to procure modern equipment for the Bundeswehr as Germany pursues recruitment and rearmament. At the same time, Germany’s federal intelligence service may soon be approved to conduct offensive operations, including sabotage.
Findings
Defense Procurement: On December 17, German media reported that the Bundestag budget committee approved a $61 billion military expenditure package (DW). Germany, which exempted defense purchases and budgets from public debt restrictions, is using the funds to purchase modern equipment for the Bundeswehr (DW).
Arrow Air Defense System: On December 18, Israel and Germany signed a $3.1 billion contract for purchasing the Arrow 3 air defense system (Reuters). The deal is Israel’s largest export deal in history (Breaking Defense). The combined value of Germany’s Arrow 3 purchases now totals $6.5 billion (Breaking Defense).
Intelligence Agency Powers: On December 18, Yahoo News, citing German broadcasters WDR and NDR, reported that the Bundestag (German parliament) is preparing a bill to authorize offensive operations for the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany’s Federal Intelligence Agency (Yahoo News, Militarnyi).
Reportedly, a draft of the bill is already under consideration (Yahoo News, Militarnyi).Powers: If approved, the bill would give the BND the legal backing to conduct offensive intelligence operations, including sabotage (Yahoo News, Militarnyi). To conduct offensive operations, Germany’s National Security Council would first need to declare a “special intelligence situation” before an operation could be sanctioned by a two-thirds approval vote in the Bundestag’s control commission (Militarnyi).
Why This Matters
The approved budget for the Bundeswehr’s defense procurement is a victory for Germany and Europe as rearmament becomes a time sensitive issue. However, Germany’s financial situation and economic stagnation suggests that unless something changes, Germany may still fall short on its security revitalization plans regardless of debt exemptions or bipartisanship in the Bundestag.
This is a good sign that Germany is taking its leading role in NATO more seriously, especially since U.S. officials have stated Germany should assume the leading role as American assets look to redeploy to the Pacific theater.
If anything, the pending BND approval is a sign of that as well.
U.S. Launches Operation Hawkeye In Syria
Summary
On December 19, Secretary Hegseth and CENTCOM confirmed Operation Hawkeye had been carried out in Syria. The operation targeted dozens of ISIS fighters and strongholds in central Syria, and was framed as retaliation for the death of two American soldiers last week.
Findings
Background: On December 13, two American soldiers and a civilian interpreter were killed by an ISIS attack on their position in Syria (CNN). CENTCOM launched “10 operations in Syria and Iraq resulting in the deaths or detention of 23 terrorist operatives” (CENTCOM). President Trump responded by declaring the United States would retaliate further (X).
Why This Matters
While Operation Hawkeye has been framed as an act of vengeance by the Department of War and Secretary Hegseth, the mission further supports deployed personnel who remain in Syria to combat ISIS. Additionally, the strikes can be interpreted as security assistance to the new al-Sharaa regime in Syria, as his new government seeks legitimacy, stability, and territorial control.
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.