Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review some key geopolitical updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 8-12 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Despite U.S.-Mediated Ceasefire, India-Pakistan Hostilities Continue

Summary
From 8-11 May, India and Pakistan experienced sharp escalations in hostilities marked by drone and missile strikes, small arms exchanges, and air combat. Despite President Trump announcing an immediate and unanimous ceasefire, violence has continued, with officials vowing to retaliate against violations.

Findings

• Drone and Missile Interceptions: On 8 May, India reported intercepting multiple drones and missiles launched by Pakistan targeting military installations in Jammu, Pathankot, and Udhampur. India's air defense systems reportedly neutralized the threats without casualties or material losses.

• Neutralization of Pakistani Air Defenses: In response to the attacks, India conducted precision strikes neutralizing Pakistan's air defense systems in Lahore. These operations were part of India's broader military response to the escalating tensions.

• Aircraft Losses: Pakistan claimed that its Chinese-made J-10 fighters shot down two Indian aircraft during aerial engagements. India has not confirmed these losses, but visual evidence suggests at least two Indian jets were downed. U.S. officials reportedly vetted Pakistan’s claim.

• Diplomatic Engagements: U.S. Secretary of State Rubio engaged in separate calls with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, urging immediate de-escalation and direct communication between the two nations.

• Ceasefire Announcement: On 10 May, President Trump announced that India and Pakistan had agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. The agreement included commitments to halt all military activities and initiate talks on broader issues at a neutral location.

• Ceasefire Violations: Despite the ceasefire, reports emerged of continued hostilities, including explosions in Srinagar and Jammu. India accused Pakistan of violating the agreement, while Pakistan denied any breaches.

Why This Matters
The recent escalation between India and Pakistan underscores the fragile nature of peace in the region, particularly concerning the disputed territory of Kashmir. The involvement of advanced military technologies, such as drones and modern fighter jets, has increased the complexity and potential destructiveness of any conflict. The swift diplomatic intervention by the United States highlights the international community's concern over the possibility of a broader, potentially nuclear, confrontation. While the ceasefire offers a temporary respite, the underlying issues remain unresolved, necessitating sustained diplomatic efforts to ensure long-term stability in South Asia.

Sources: ABC News, TNIE, Reuters, U.S. State Department, U.S. State Department, DW, Fox News

Germany’s Domestic Intelligence Agency Walks Back Extremist Designation Of AfD Party

Summary
On 8 May, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) temporarily suspended its classification of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as a “confirmed right-wing extremist” movement. The decision follows the AfD’s filing of a lawsuit against the BfV, as well as Friedrich Merz facing historic difficulties in being confirmed as chancellor in the Bundestag. The AfD is currently the second most popular party in the Bundestag.

Findings

• BfV's Classification: On 2 May, the BfV designated the AfD as a "confirmed right-wing extremist movement," citing concerns over the party's ideological positions. The AfD filed a lawsuit challenging this classification, arguing it was politically motivated. A court in Cologne acknowledged the legal motion and stated that the BfV would suspend public references to the AfD as an extremist group until the court reaches a ruling on the party's injunction request.
  The BfV will continue surveillance operations against the AfD and its members, albeit under greater judicial review.

• AfD's Political Standing: The AfD has emerged as the second-largest party in the Bundestag, doubling its number of seats in the latest election. This significant presence has increased the party's influence in German politics, despite ongoing controversies surrounding its ideological stance.

• Chancellor Merz's Fragile Coalition: Friedrich Merz was elected Chancellor on 6 May in a second round of voting, after failing to secure an absolute majority in the first round—a first in postwar German history. His CDU/CSU–SPD coalition holds a slim majority, and the initial failure highlighted internal divisions and the challenges Merz faces in maintaining coalition unity.

Why This Matters
While the BfV’s suspension of the AfD’s extremist classification may appear to be an act of political forbearance, neutrality, and judicial compliance, it is possible the decision was made to ease tensions in Germany’s political arena as the Merz coalition is off to a fragile start. The BfV will still continue to conduct surveillance operations on the AfD and its members.

By pausing the extremist designation, the BfV allow the AfD to remain a viable political voice in the Bundestag at a moment where the Merz governemnt’s slim majority needs to find more broad support. If the AfD were to be labeled as far-right extremists, it would allow Germany’s political apparatus to move to formally ban and dissolve the party.

Sources: POLITICO, Reuters

Russia, China Deepen Strategic Partnership

Summary
On 8 May, Russian President Putin and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in Moscow. The development is being viewed as a renewed commitment to a “multipolar world order” and opposition to the United States’ global influence. The agreement encompasses increased economic cooperation, military collaboration, and a unified stance on international issues.

Findings

• Joint Statement on Strategic Partnership: During Xi's state visit to Moscow, the two leaders signed a joint statement emphasizing their "comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era." They pledged to enhance cooperation across various sectors, including politics, economy, and security. The agreement coincided with the USSR’s 80th anniversary of victory during WWII.

• Economic Collaboration: Russia's state development bank, VEB, announced plans to fund joint projects with Chinese companies, amounting to approximately $42.74 billion. These projects span sectors such as gas, metallurgy, timber processing, and shipbuilding.

• Military and Security Cooperation: The two nations highlighted their growing military ties, noting 14 joint exercises conducted in 2024. Additionally, a Chinese honor guard participated in Moscow's Victory Day parade for the first time since 2015, symbolizing deepening defense relations.
  The strategic partnership does not include a mutual defense treaty or clause.

• Criticism of U.S. Policies: Both leaders criticized U.S. unilateralism and NATO's expansion into the Asia-Pacific region. Xi likened U.S. hegemony to fascist forces, emphasizing the need for a fair and just international order.
  While both sides were eager to define the West as hegemonic and imperialist, neither mentioned the Sino-Soviet Border Conflict in 1969, nor the terrible relations shared between China and the USSR during the Cold War.

• Historical Context and Symbolism: Xi's visit coincided with Russia's Victory Day celebrations, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. The leaders used this occasion to reinforce their alliance and shared historical narratives, positioning themselves as defenders of global stability against Western dominance.

Why This Matters
The deepening alliance between Russia and China formalizes a long-time shift in global geopolitics. Their unified stance challenges the existing U.S.-led international order and presents an alternative vision centered on multipolarity and the manipulation of a “rules-based order” and international institutions.

As both nations face increasing pressure from Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation, their partnership provides mutual support and a platform to advance their strategic interests. This is particularly valuable for Russia as it looks to rebuild its military and economy post-Ukraine, and for China which will look for support in its pursuit of Taiwan and the South China Sea region.

This alignment could have far-reaching implications for global trade, security dynamics, and the balance of power in international relations.

Sources: CNN, The Diplomat, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Financial Times

End Brief

That concludes this brief; nice and short but high-level and significant.

Is there anything you want more coverage on? Let me know @ [email protected].

See you Thursday,

Nick