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- Monday Morning Brief (8-12 May 2025)
Monday Morning Brief (8-12 May 2025)
Hostilities between India and Pakistan continue, Russia and China sign a new strategic partnership, and Germany halts its extremist label of the AfD party.

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning,
This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review some key geopolitical updates from the weekend.
Reporting Period: 8-12 May 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. From 8-11 May, India and Pakistan experienced sharp escalations in hostilities marked by drone and missile strikes, small arms exchanges, and air combat. Despite President Trump announcing an immediate and unanimous ceasefire, violence has continued, with officials vowing to retaliate against violations.
2. On 8 May, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) temporarily suspended its classification of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as a “confirmed right-wing extremist” movement. The decision follows the AfD’s filing of a lawsuit against the BfV, as well as Friedrich Merz facing historic difficulties in being confirmed as chancellor in the Bundestag. The AfD is currently the second most popular party in the Bundestag.
3. On 8 May, Russian President Putin and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in Moscow. The development is being viewed as a renewed commitment to a “multipolar world order” and opposition to the United States’ global influence. The agreement encompasses increased economic cooperation, military collaboration, and a unified stance on international issues.
Despite U.S.-Mediated Ceasefire, India-Pakistan Hostilities Continue
Summary
From 8-11 May, India and Pakistan experienced sharp escalations in hostilities marked by drone and missile strikes, small arms exchanges, and air combat. Despite President Trump announcing an immediate and unanimous ceasefire, violence has continued, with officials vowing to retaliate against violations.
BREAKING: Pakistan lost 35 to 40 military personnel in fighting with India, according to Reuters.
Follow our live blog for more: trib.al/du9m0gA
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
— Sky News (@SkyNews)
1:46 PM • May 11, 2025
Findings
Drone and Missile Interceptions: On 8 May, India reported intercepting multiple drones and missiles launched by Pakistan targeting military installations in Jammu, Pathankot, and Udhampur. India's air defense systems reportedly neutralized the threats without casualties or material losses.
Neutralization of Pakistani Air Defenses: In response to the attacks, India conducted precision strikes neutralizing Pakistan's air defense systems in Lahore. These operations were part of India's broader military response to the escalating tensions.
India has now become the only nation in the world to neutralize multiple air bases of a nuclear-armed country (Pakistan)
— Pubity (@pubity)
7:49 PM • May 11, 2025
Aircraft Losses: Pakistan claimed that its Chinese-made J-10 fighters shot down two Indian aircraft during aerial engagements. India has not confirmed these losses, but visual evidence suggests at least two Indian jets were downed. U.S. officials reportedly vetted Pakistan’s claim.
Diplomatic Engagements: U.S. Secretary of State Rubio engaged in separate calls with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, urging immediate de-escalation and direct communication between the two nations.
Without strong leadership in Islamabad, with passions running high, and with foreign powers actively pouring gasoline on the fire, all signs point toward further escalation. ow.ly/pcVL30sMkMa
— National Interest (@TheNatlInterest)
5:30 PM • May 10, 2025
Ceasefire Announcement: On 10 May, President Trump announced that India and Pakistan had agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. The agreement included commitments to halt all military activities and initiate talks on broader issues at a neutral location.
Ceasefire Violations: Despite the ceasefire, reports emerged of continued hostilities, including explosions in Srinagar and Jammu. India accused Pakistan of violating the agreement, while Pakistan denied any breaches.
JUST IN: 🇮🇳🇵🇰 India says it's responding to Pakistan's ceasefire violations.
— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo)
5:42 PM • May 10, 2025
Why This Matters
The recent escalation between India and Pakistan underscores the fragile nature of peace in the region, particularly concerning the disputed territory of Kashmir. The involvement of advanced military technologies, such as drones and modern fighter jets, has increased the complexity and potential destructiveness of any conflict. The swift diplomatic intervention by the United States highlights the international community's concern over the possibility of a broader, potentially nuclear, confrontation. While the ceasefire offers a temporary respite, the underlying issues remain unresolved, necessitating sustained diplomatic efforts to ensure long-term stability in South Asia.
Sources: ABC News, TNIE, Reuters, U.S. State Department, U.S. State Department, DW, Fox News
Germany’s Domestic Intelligence Agency Walks Back Extremist Designation Of AfD Party
Summary
On 8 May, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) temporarily suspended its classification of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as a “confirmed right-wing extremist” movement. The decision follows the AfD’s filing of a lawsuit against the BfV, as well as Friedrich Merz facing historic difficulties in being confirmed as chancellor in the Bundestag. The AfD is currently the second most popular party in the Bundestag.
🇩🇪🇺🇸 GERMANY STOPS SPYING ON AfD FOR NOW — AFTER U.S. CALLS FOUL
Germany’s intel agency just paused its surveillance of the AfD after it labeled the party “far-right extremists” — but now has to wait for a court to decide if that label is legally justified.
Why the sudden
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)
9:50 PM • May 11, 2025
Findings
BfV's Classification: On 2 May, the BfV designated the AfD as a "confirmed right-wing extremist movement," citing concerns over the party's ideological positions. The AfD filed a lawsuit challenging this classification, arguing it was politically motivated. A court in Cologne acknowledged the legal motion and stated that the BfV would suspend public references to the AfD as an extremist group until the court reaches a ruling on the party's injunction request.
The BfV will continue surveillance operations against the AfD and its members, albeit under greater judicial review.
JUST IN: Germany’s far-right AfD sues domestic intelligence agency over 'extremist' label.
— DW News (@dwnews)
8:58 AM • May 5, 2025
AfD's Political Standing: The AfD has emerged as the second-largest party in the Bundestag, doubling its number of seats in the latest election. This significant presence has increased the party's influence in German politics, despite ongoing controversies surrounding its ideological stance.
Chancellor Merz's Fragile Coalition: Friedrich Merz was elected Chancellor on 6 May in a second round of voting, after failing to secure an absolute majority in the first round—a first in postwar German history. His CDU/CSU–SPD coalition holds a slim majority, and the initial failure highlighted internal divisions and the challenges Merz faces in maintaining coalition unity.
Germany still doesn’t know what to do with the far-right AfD. The party’s rise has created one political crisis. Any attempt to ban it would create another, writes @josephsternberg
— Wall Street Journal Opinion (@WSJopinion)
7:00 PM • May 11, 2025
Why This Matters
While the BfV’s suspension of the AfD’s extremist classification may appear to be an act of political forbearance, neutrality, and judicial compliance, it is possible the decision was made to ease tensions in Germany’s political arena as the Merz coalition is off to a fragile start. The BfV will still continue to conduct surveillance operations on the AfD and its members.
By pausing the extremist designation, the BfV allow the AfD to remain a viable political voice in the Bundestag at a moment where the Merz governemnt’s slim majority needs to find more broad support. If the AfD were to be labeled as far-right extremists, it would allow Germany’s political apparatus to move to formally ban and dissolve the party.
Russia, China Deepen Strategic Partnership
Summary
On 8 May, Russian President Putin and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in Moscow. The development is being viewed as a renewed commitment to a “multipolar world order” and opposition to the United States’ global influence. The agreement encompasses increased economic cooperation, military collaboration, and a unified stance on international issues.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin jointly met the press on Thursday. #china#russia
President Xi noted that in the face of global, epoch-making and historical changes, China and Russia should firmly grasp the direction of bilateral relations and
— Chinese Embassy in US (@ChineseEmbinUS)
4:13 PM • May 8, 2025
Findings
Joint Statement on Strategic Partnership: During Xi's state visit to Moscow, the two leaders signed a joint statement emphasizing their "comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era." They pledged to enhance cooperation across various sectors, including politics, economy, and security. The agreement coincided with the USSR’s 80th anniversary of victory during WWII.
Economic Collaboration: Russia's state development bank, VEB, announced plans to fund joint projects with Chinese companies, amounting to approximately $42.74 billion. These projects span sectors such as gas, metallurgy, timber processing, and shipbuilding.
Military and Security Cooperation: The two nations highlighted their growing military ties, noting 14 joint exercises conducted in 2024. Additionally, a Chinese honor guard participated in Moscow's Victory Day parade for the first time since 2015, symbolizing deepening defense relations.
The strategic partnership does not include a mutual defense treaty or clause.
🇨🇳At the invitation of Russia’s Ministry of Defense, 119 members of the People's Liberation Army Honor Guard took part in the Victory Day Parade in Moscow, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union's Great Patriotic War.
— Chinese Embassy in US (@ChineseEmbinUS)
4:53 PM • May 9, 2025
Criticism of U.S. Policies: Both leaders criticized U.S. unilateralism and NATO's expansion into the Asia-Pacific region. Xi likened U.S. hegemony to fascist forces, emphasizing the need for a fair and just international order.
While both sides were eager to define the West as hegemonic and imperialist, neither mentioned the Sino-Soviet Border Conflict in 1969, nor the terrible relations shared between China and the USSR during the Cold War.Historical Context and Symbolism: Xi's visit coincided with Russia's Victory Day celebrations, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. The leaders used this occasion to reinforce their alliance and shared historical narratives, positioning themselves as defenders of global stability against Western dominance.
🇷🇺🇨🇳Vladimir Putin seen walking alongside Xi Jinping, Russia's strategic partner
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt)
9:23 AM • May 9, 2025
Why This Matters
The deepening alliance between Russia and China formalizes a long-time shift in global geopolitics. Their unified stance challenges the existing U.S.-led international order and presents an alternative vision centered on multipolarity and the manipulation of a “rules-based order” and international institutions.
As both nations face increasing pressure from Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation, their partnership provides mutual support and a platform to advance their strategic interests. This is particularly valuable for Russia as it looks to rebuild its military and economy post-Ukraine, and for China which will look for support in its pursuit of Taiwan and the South China Sea region.
This alignment could have far-reaching implications for global trade, security dynamics, and the balance of power in international relations.
End Brief
That concludes this brief; nice and short but high-level and significant.
Is there anything you want more coverage on? Let me know @ [email protected].
See you Thursday,
Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information. This publication is not affiliated with the United States government or any federal department.