Good morning,

I hope you had a great weekend. This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

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Reporting Period: 7-11 August 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Armenia, Azerbaijan Sign Peace Deal At White House

Summary
On 8 August, President Trump hosted Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan at the White House to announce a peace deal between the two countries. The peace deal is related to the decades-old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Trump also announced the U.S. control of a critical transit corridor in the region, which will be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

Findings

• Background: The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been waged in sporadic waves between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1988 (officially). The region experienced the expulsion of ethic Azeris in the 1990s. The region was previously controlled by the Republic of Artsakh, and until 2023, was mostly ethnic Armenian.
  The region was under “low-intensity conflict” from 2020 to 2023, when an Azerbaijani offensive (backed by Turkish support and drone technology) secured Azerbaijan’s control of the region.
  Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan recognized Baku’s control over the region in 2022, under pressure from the Russian-led CSTO and the international community.

  In July 2025, Pashinyan announced that the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan had made progress.

• Peace Deal: On 8 August, live from the White House, President Trump announced the new peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Trump hosted Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev.
  The deal commits both sides to the cessation of hostilities and opening to commerce, travel, and diplomatic relations.
  Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to let the United States construct and control a critical transit route between Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan exclave. The route will be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

  • Armenia: Armenia is expanding a partnership with the United States to develop the TRIPP corridor with the option for U.S. control to extend 99 years.

  • Azerbaijan: The U.S. is lifting restrictions on defense cooperation with Azerbaijan. Earlier this year, the U.S. and Armenia held military exercises, and from 12 to 20 August, both countries will conduct exercise Eagle Partner 2025.
    With the U.S. dropping restrictions for Baku, we could see trilateral defense cooperation between the three nations for the first time ever.

  • Bilateral Relations: The U.S. is signing a bilateral agreement with both countries. The partnerships will expand “cooperation, energy, and technology.”

• President Aliyev’s Remarks: Aliyev announced that he and Trump were beginning the coordination of a strategic partnership between the U.S. and Azerbaijan. He stated the pact could be completed and signed in several months. He also called the United States “the greatest country in the world,” suggesting a major embrace of the U.S.-led order in the historically Russian-dominated region.
  He expressed gratitude for Trump lifting sanctions on Azerbaijan that dated to 1992.

• Prime Minister Pashinyan’s Remarks: Pashinyan expressed his gratitude to President Trump and the U.S., and that American mediation enhances confidence in the peace deal and future strategic projects.

Both leaders expressed their intention to promote President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Why This Matters
This is a historic diplomatic breakthrough. The peace deal is a powerful foundation for expanding U.S. bilateral relations in the Caucasus, as well as opening doors for diplomatic and economic flourishing for Armenia and Azerbaijan.

However, the long history of ethnic and religious violence in Nagorno-Karabakh raises questions on the peace deals long-term stability. For example, a large Armenian Christian diaspora was displaced from the region, and under Azeri control, ancient Christian sights have been defaced or torn down as part of cultural erasure policies.

While the TRIPP corridor is a great opportunity to perpetuate U.S. presence and interest in the region (and therefore incentivize peace), the tensions could lead to extremism or proxy violence if left unaddressed.

Finally, perhaps the most interesting factor here is the Azeri and Armenian embrace of the U.S. against Russia. The new peace deal has even prompted calls for the Russian and French-led Minsk Group to be abolished in the OSCE. The Minsk Group was created in 1992 to find a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Sources: The White House, YouTube, The Guardian, News AZ, Interfax

President Trump To Meet With President Putin

Summary
President Trump and President Putin will meet in Alaska on 15 August. It is uncertain what the agenda items are, or if any progress on a ceasefire will be reached. The White House and EU are open to inviting President Zelenskyy to the meeting, but will likely seek Russia’s approval as not to blindside Putin and degrade the current diplomatic environment.

Findings

• Background: On 6 August, U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff arrived in Moscow to meet with President Putin. The pair spoke for nearly 3 hours before Witkoff departed. The Kremlin initially claimed the meeting yielded positive results.
  Following Witkoff’s meeting, Trump stated he will meet with Putin before hosting trilateral talks with both Putin and Zelenskyy.
  Trump previously threatened new sanctions and tariffs on Russia if a ceasefire was not reached. Before reaching that deadline, Trump imposed new tariffs on India related to their purchase of Russian energy products through legal and illicit means.

• Trump-Putin Meeting: Either feeling the pressure of sanctions alongside wartime losses or looking to retain soft power, Putin has agreed to meet with President Trump.
  On 7 August, the Kremlin announced that a meeting between Trump and Putin was confirmed and would happen in the “coming days.”
  On 8 August, President Trump confirmed that he will meet with Putin in Alaska on 15 August.

• Shifting Details: While an agenda and specific location in Alaska is unconfirmed, European leaders have been promoting the idea of President Zelensky attending the talks. CBS News reports that the White House is “open to inviting” Zelenskyy to the talks.

Why This Matters
It is hard to know what to make of the upcoming meeting. Zelenskyy maintains that a deal cannot be made without Ukraine and the EU present, Putin says Russia’s goals must be met, and President Trump stated that there will definitely be “some swapping of territories, to the betterment of both.”

Given the disparate strategic goals, it seems unlikely a deal could be reached with all relevant parties in attendance, which further raises questions about what Putin and Trump could achieve alone in Alaska.

If only Trump and Putin meet, it is possible that the pair will make adjacent diplomatic agreements to improve the diplomatic climate. It is possible that one of Russia’s long-term goals is to return to the G8 and pursue diplomatic normalization in Europe alongside economic integration. One immediate diplomatic concession could be the removal of sanctions on Russia by Trump. Another could be a reformatting of the very recently abandoned INF Treaty. And finally, at the very least, the meeting could simply be used to coordinate the next one (and maybe a quadrilateral one with the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and Europe).

While some of these may seem outlandish given the hostile relationship with Russia, lower-level officials are already planting those ideas. For example, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and an economic envoy of Putin’s tweeted about Alaska’s unique Russian history and the potential for a deeper Russo-American partnership:

Sources: Axios, POLITICO, The White House, NBC News, Interfax, CBS News, BBC

Israel Plans To Liberate Gaza City From Hamas Through Initial Occupation

Summary
On 8 August, Israel’s Security Cabinet reportedly approved a proposal to assault Gaza City to dismantle Hamas and establish a new government. While Gaza City has been targeted by airstrikes and IDF assaults, the area has not been occupied by Israel. The UN states that Gaza City has an excessive refugee population, and has questioned where residents will flee to when urban operations begin.

Findings

• Israeli Occupations: An NPR report claims that the IDF already occupies 90% of Gaza, with some IDF personnel controlling parts of eastern Gaza City.

  • Goals: Israel proposed five goals to end the war:

    • Disarm Hamas

    • Free remaining hostages (dead and alive)

    • Demilitarize Gaza

    • Israeli security control

    • Non-Israeli civil administration (Israel would not accept a Hamas or Palestinian Authority government)

    Tactically, Netanyahu stated that to “finish the job” in lieu of Hamas rejecting a surrender, the IDF will need to assault and occupy Gaza City and the Central Camps and Moasi. The two locations are the “Remaining Hamas Strongholds.”
    Netanyahu stated the IDF will establish safe zones for civilians, where Israel will provide humanitarian aid.

• International Response: Previously, influential nations like France and the UK stated that they would recognize Palestinian sovereignty at the upcoming UN General Assembly if Israel continued to expand its war in the region. Germany recently cancelled all military aid and sales to Israel. Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping officially called for the International Criminal Court to arrest Netanyahu for war crimes.
  While the United States continues to aid Israel, many of Israel’s contemporary allies are drawing a line, viewing Netanyahu’s expansion of the war and humanitarian crisis as excessive and inhumane. Israel maintains that so long as Hamas and other Iranian proxies exist, the Israeli state and region cannot be safe and will not prosper.

• Domestic Disagreement: NPR states that Israeli public opinion is divided, and that thousands of protestors have gathered to denounce the occupation plans, while “hundreds of former generals” and security officials signed a petition asking President Trump to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Why This Matters
There are three clear risks or developments likely to come out of this:

• Increased distaste for Israel and its foreign policy, which could prompt pro-Palestinian movements and legislation abroad and in the UN

• An expansion to Israel’s regional conflicts, which includes campaigns against proxies and Iran directly

• A long-term Israeli occupation of Gaza that does not address core issues, increasing terrorism and humanitarian crises

One of the things we really need to observe is the UN General Assembly in September. There are already plans to vote to recognize Palestinian sovereignty, effectively creating an internationally supported two-state solution (an idea that is now permeating the mainstream policy of major Western governments like France, Canada, the UK, and Germany).

Sources: NPR, BBC, NBC News

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

See you Thursday,
— Nick