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Let’s review the major geopolitical events from this week.

Reporting Period: 7-10 July 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

To Promote New Syrian Government, U.S. State Department Revokes HTS From Foreign Terrorist Organization List

Summary
On 7 July, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio announced the removal of al-Nusrah Front, also known as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), from the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. The change is effective as of 8 July. This action follows President Trump’s promise to provide Syria sanctions relief, follows the reported dissolution of HTS and the new Syrian government's stated commitment to combating terrorism. President al-Sharaa, formerly Abu Mohammad al-Golani, assumed the presidency in January 2025 after leading the offensive that toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024, marking a significant shift in Syria's political landscape.

Findings

• Background: Secretary Rubio authorized the removal of HTS from the FTO to “build on the momentum” of the 30 June Executive Order “Providing for the Revocation of Syria Sanctions.”

  • President al-Sharaa: President Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Golani, was the long-time leader of al-Nusrah Front, an al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliate, and subsequently Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). His group spearheaded the offensive that led to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024. Al-Sharaa served as Syria's de facto leader from December 2024 until his formal appointment as President of Syria's interim government on 29 January 2025. Since assuming power, al-Sharaa has engaged in efforts to rebrand his image and improve political legitimacy.

• Al-Sharaa’s Goals: Following the fall of Assad, al-Sharaa's administration has worked to consolidate control, integrate various military factions, and establish a new governance structure. The U.S. and other Western countries have begun cautiously re-engaging with Syria, signaling a potential shift in international policy towards the country. For example, the UK has been re-establishing diplomatic ties, with Foreign Secretary Lammy visiting Damascus. Al-Sharaa has also sought to reassure international bodies, including offering full cooperation and access to the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency.

Why This Matters
Al-Sharaa’s rise to Syria’s presidency, which has spurred U.S. sanctions relief and the FTO revocation, is a huge U.S. policy shift in Syria. Much like Israel’s interpretation that this is a “double-edged sword,” the U.S. appears to be open to the development because it is the best opportunity in years to close the security crisis that has plagued Syria. What is uncertain is how having a former ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliate in charge will shift the U.S. counterterrorism approach, or how we will choose to engage with other regimes (i.e., the Taliban regime in Afghanistan).

One of the critical components to this policy’s future success will be observing how former HTS and other Islamic groups get absorbed into the new government and state institutions. The U.S. needs to assess what real control al-Sharaa will retain over such a divided nation, and if factions with external allegiance (i.e., to Assad, to Israel, to Iran, or to ethnic movements) will comply or stage their own counter-movements.

From an intelligence and counterintelligence perspective, there is a real challenge in vetting whether or not HTS is truly disbanded.

Sources: U.S. Department of State, AP News, Al Jazeera, Atlantic Council, NCTC

Germany Summons Chinese Ambassador Over Military Interference In Red Sea

Summary
On 8 July 2025, Germany summoned China's ambassador after a Chinese warship targeted a German reconnaissance aircraft with a laser in the Red Sea. The incident, occurring in early July during Germany's participation in the EU's Operation Aspides, forced the aircraft to abort its mission due to safety concerns. Germany condemned the action as an unacceptable endangerment of personnel and disruption of a vital maritime security operation.

Findings

• Incident Details: In early July 2025 (reportedly July 2), a Chinese warship operating in the Red Sea targeted a German Multi-Sensor Platform (MSP) reconnaissance aircraft with a laser. The German aircraft was conducting a routine surveillance flight as part of Operation Aspides. The Chinese vessel provided no warning or communication prior to the incident.

• German Response: The German Foreign Ministry confirmed on 8 July 2025 that it had summoned China's ambassador to Berlin to protest the incident. Germany's government labeled the action a "serious breach of conduct," a direct "threat to personnel safety," and "completely unacceptable," stressing that putting German personnel at risk and disrupting the EU operation was intolerable. The targeted aircraft, operated by a civilian commercial provider with German military personnel onboard, aborted its mission as a precaution and safely returned to its base in Djibouti. The mission has since resumed.

• Operation Aspides Context: The German aircraft was deployed as part of Operation Aspides, a defensive European Union military mission launched in February 2024. Its mandate is to safeguard international shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and surrounding waters from attacks by Yemen's Houthi militants. Germany contributes up to 700 personnel to this mission.

• Chinese Posture: There has been no immediate official response from China's foreign ministry or its embassy in Berlin regarding the incident. Historically, China has denied similar accusations of using lasers against foreign aircraft, including a 2020 incident involving a U.S. patrol aircraft over international waters.

Why This Matters
This incident raises concerns about de-escalation protocols and the risk of miscalculation in crowded waterways. It also highlights China’s practice of manipulating international law to protect its actions and hinder others.

For example, China’s proclaimed mission in the region is to protect merchant vessels from Houthi attacks, yet Chinese assets regularly ignore threats, collude with Iran and its proxies, and now, interfere with genuine peacekeeping missions.

In the most basic sense, the operations also allow China to conduct valuable real-world iterations of its warfighting capabilities.

Sources: AP News, DW, The Defense Post

EU Commission President Von Der Leyen Faces Vote Of No Confidence

Summary
Today, 10 July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen faces a vote of no confidence in the European Parliament. Initiated by Europe’s conservative parliamentarians, the motion cites a range of allegations regarding the handling of COVID-19, EU funds, and election interference in Germany and Romania. Despite expecting the vote to fail, it displays a growing movement of dissatisfaction in Europe’s leading ideology and policy direction.

Findings

• Vote Details: The European Parliament held a debate on Monday, 7 July. Today, parliamentarians will vote on the censure motion. The motion was championed by Romanian MEP Gheorghe Piperea of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and requires a two-thirds majority to pass, making its success highly improbable given current parliamentary alignments.

• "Pfizergate" Allegations: A central accusation is von der Leyen's handling of the EU's largest COVID-19 vaccine contract, a $38.5 billion deal with Pfizer. Critics allege a lack of transparency, specifically regarding private text messages exchanged between von der Leyen and Pfizer CEO Bourla. A May 2025 EU General Court ruling found the Commission violated transparency rules by denying access to these messages, which are now considered official documents subject to public access laws. The European Public Prosecutor's Office is also investigating the vaccine deals for potential "interference in public functions, destruction of SMS, corruption and conflict of interest."

• Additional Criticisms: The motion also includes allegations of misuse of EU funds and interference in national elections in Germany and Romania. Von der Leyen supported a decision by the EU’s court to deny certification of Romania’s election results when far-right presidential candidate Călin Georgescu won. Von der Leyen also spoke out against the popular far-right AfD party during Germany’s snap elections.

• Political Landscape: Mainstream pro-European political groups, including von der Leyen's own European People's Party (EPP), along with the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), Renew Europe, and the Greens/EFA, have largely indicated they will vote against the motion to prevent a political victory for anti-EU and far-right parties.

Why This Matters
While this no-confidence vote is unlikely to unseat von der Leyen, it's a critical moment for European politics. It forces a public accounting of major controversies and exposes a dynamic in Brussels by which the organization appears to make decisions for its own benefit and political longevity, rather than the benefit of the bloc.

Sources: AP News, Euronews, Euronews

Continued Deaths Of Russian Elites Raise Questions About Putin’s Regime Stability

Summary
In July 2025, two more prominent Russian elites, Andrei Badalov and Roman Starovoit, were found dead. Their deaths have been officially ruled as suicides. These incidents extend a disturbing pattern observed since 2022, where more than 35 high-ranking Russian officials and executives, many from state-controlled energy sectors, have died unexpectedly. The recurring nature of these deaths, often attributed to suicides or falls from windows, has fueled widespread speculation of foul play, internal power struggles, or a Kremlin crackdown amidst Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Findings

• Timeline: The Intel Brief carried out a timeline analysis, which records the date, name, and circumstances of death for 36 Russian elites:

• Recent Deaths: The deaths of Badalov and Starovoit are the most recent deaths of Russian elites under mysterious circumstances.

  • Andrei Badalov: On 4 July, Andrei Badalov, 62, Vice-President of Russia's state-owned oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, was found dead after allegedly falling from a window of his Moscow home. Russian state media cited a preliminary finding of suicide and a farewell note. Badalov had overseen Transneft's digital transformation since 2021, a period described by the company as "difficult and stressful" due to wartime sanctions.

  • Roman Starovoit: On 7 July, Roman Starovoy, 53, Russia's former Transport Minister, was found dead from a suspected self-inflicted gunshot wound in his car west of Moscow, hours after Putin dismissed him. While no official reason for his dismissal was given, reports suggested links to a corruption investigation regarding embezzlement in Kursk and widespread travel disruptions from Ukrainian drone attacks. The Kremlin expressed "shock" at his death.

Why This Matters
The ongoing deaths of Russian oligarchs and elites point to deep-seated corruption and fierce power struggles within Russia’s ruling class, or to Putin systematically eliminating disloyal figures who once enjoyed corruption as a reward for their loyalty.

The Intel Brief assesses that the latter circumstance is likely; that Putin is removing disloyal figures he can no longer rely on. If true, it is particularly relevant given Russia’s dire economic state, dwindling military industrial capability, and the need to rebound its economy for post-war growth and reconstruction.

Sources: CBS News, The Kyiv Independent, Economic Times, The Spectator

End Brief

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— Nick

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