Good morning,

This is the Monday edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review the key geopolitical updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 31 July - 4 August 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump Amends Executive Order, Employs Reciprocal Tariffs On Deadline

Summary
On 31 July, the White House announced President Trump’s modification to Executive Order 14257. The order places reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10 to 40% on countries that failed to establish a trade deal with the United States since April 2025.

Findings

• Background: On 2 April, President Trump declared a national security emergency due to unfair and unbalanced trade relations abroad. Trump signed Executive Order 14257 (Regulating Imports With a Reciprocal Tariff To Rectify Trade Practices That Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits) to pressure the establishment of bilateral trade deals with the U.S. or face increased tariffs.
  Trump initially delayed the reciprocal tariffs, establishing a deadline of 1 August.

• Details: More than 60 nations that failed to reach a trade deal with the U.S. will have reciprocal tariffs applied to exports to the U.S.
  The baseline tariff rates range from 10% to 40%. The memo from the White House does not include duties or add-ons.

• Future Deals: The executive order states that nations that are close to reaching a deal, or recently completed ones (such as the EU or South Korea) will not face tariff hikes.
  Executive Order 14298 regarding trade with China is not modified.

Why This Matters
First and foremost, American citizens need to understand that the administration’s goal for trade is to establish deals that work to reverse the U.S. trade deficit.

That being said, it is difficult to measure the effectiveness of tariff policies because of the disparate short and long-term effects. Critics suggest that American taxpayers will bear the initial burden by paying more for goods in the short-term, while proponents of Trump’s policies suggest the long-term effects will be growing U.S. markets and industries and an increase in cash flow to the U.S. from abroad. So far, both appear correct.

Interestingly, Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior counselor for trade, stated that the administration’s trade policy is “a fundamental restructuring of the international trade environment.” He implies that as the Trump administration continues to secure more favorable bilateral trade deals, the value and merit of tariff threats will be realized.

In order to truly assess the effectiveness of this strategy holistically, we will need to see what kind of deal is reached with major economies like China and India and, to some degree, the rising BRICS bloc, which includes Brazil and other growing economies.

Sources: The White House, Newsweek

Russia Commits To Strategic Posturing, Offensive Operations In Ukraine Following Trump Admin Ultimatum

Summary
President Trump has called for a peace deal to be reached between Moscow and Kyiv by 8 August. Russian offensive operations in Ukraine and strategic posturing alongside Belarus suggest Moscow will continue to prosecute the war to establish favorable peace conditions. Trump’s lead negotiator will travel to Russia this week.

Findings

• Peace Deal Ultimatum: President Trump recently reduced a 50-day timeline for Russia to establish a ceasefire with Ukraine. Now, Trump reportedly wants a peace deal by 8 August and has threatened to implement new tariffs and sanctions on Russia if no efforts are made.
  Various statements from the Kremlin and former Russian president Medvedev have suggested Russia shows no intent of reaching that deadline. The Kremlin previously stated that Russia has “immunity” to U.S. sanctions despite a looming recession. Putin and the Kremlin have consistently maintained that a peace deal can only be reached if Russian interests are secured.
  Despite this, Trump’s lead diplomat, Steve Witkoff, will travel to Russia for talks.

• Capture of Chasiv Yar: On 31 July, Russia claims to have captured Chasiv Yar, a town in eastern Ukraine near Bakhmut. Russia’s capture of Chasiv Yar theoretically gives Moscow greater freedom to conduct offensive operations across the Donetsk region.

• Nuclear Posturing: On 28 July, former Russian president Medvedev stated that continued ultimatums by Trump could lead to war between Russia and the United States. In response, President Trump announced the deployment of two nuclear submarines “in the appropriate regions.”

• Missiles to Belarus: On 1 August, Putin stated that Russia has begun production of Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM). Once operational, those missiles will be deployed to Belarus, a dig at NATO, its defense modernization, and deployments to its eastern flanks with Russia.
  The Oreshnik is nuclear-capable and was deployed against Ukraine in November 2024.

• Maskirovka: In classic Russian rhetoric, President Putin has continued to attempt to conceal his strategic goals. Speaking alongside Belarusian President Lukashenko, Putin stated he wants a “lasting and stable peace” in Ukraine. In contradiction to that claim, ABC News reported that in July 2025, Russia launched 6,400 drones and missiles into Ukraine while conducting large-scale ground offensives across Ukraine.

Why This Matters
Russia’s defiance of the Trump administration’s ultimatum and its continued offensive operations show Moscow’s intent to dictate the terms of any peace deal from a position of strength.

Additionally, some of the posturing suggests that while Russia continues to prosecute the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin is also looking to reestablish deterrence against NATO’s renewed defense efforts.

If Russia does not reach a ceasefire, it is likely that the conflict in Ukraine will stagnate as Russia adjusts to economic sanctions. This would be likely to coincide with an expansion of drone and missile production for strikes that pressure Ukraine’s infrastructure and defense stockpiles (thus prepping for future offensives). Such a scenario could also include the influx of Russian recruits and foreign fighters, as seen with North Korea. Under such a strategy, it is my assessment that Russia believes it can win a war of attrition against Ukraine and pressure Zelenskyy into a deal that cedes territory to Moscow.

Sources: The Guardian, ABC News, AP News, CNN, CNN, Reuters

German Government Approves Draft Budget Despite Deficit, Major Defense Spending

Summary
On 30 July, DW reported that the German government has approved a draft budget for 2026. At the same time, Germany’s Bundeswehr is planning a multi-billion-dollar weapons system procurement as part of its defense modernization efforts. Germany’s Defence Ministry reported a 28% surge in recruitment from this time last year. All these suggest the Merz government is carrying on with efforts to build a premier military and economy while balancing investment, jobs, and a growing deficit.

Findings

• 2026 Draft Budget: A €520.5 billion budget proposal is being reviewed by German lawmakers. If approved, the budget would include nearly €127 billion in economic investments and €175 billion in loans (which is triple the rate of borrowing from 2024).

  The German Finance Minister warned that there is a €171 billion deficit in the budget.
  The Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, will scrutinize the budget and vote on its implementation later in 2025.
  The previous Scholz “traffic light coalition” government failed a vote of no confidence, which led to snap elections, in part due to its failure to establish an economic policy.

• Defense Investment: Reuters reported that the German military, the Bundeswehr, is planning to purchase 20 Eurofighter jets, 3,000 Boxer armored vehicles, and 3,500 Patria infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
  Chancellor Merz’s defense policy is to rebuild the German military and establish it as the leading fighting force in Europe. In early 2025, he secured the Bundestag’s approval to exempt defense spending from debt limits.
  Germany’s 2026 defense budget is expected to top €83 billion.

• Bundeswehr Recruitment: Germany’s Defence Ministry stated that from January to July 2025, recruitment saw a 28% increase when compared to 2024, indicating a surge in patriotism, approval of military service, and growing efforts in recruitment.

Why This Matters
Germany’s increased defense spending, major procurement plans, and growing Bundeswehr recruitment signal Berlin’s intent to fulfill a leadership role within NATO. It also shows a growing concern regarding Russia, its war in Ukraine, and growing efforts to sabotage and intimidate NATO member states.

One thing Germany and its NATO allies will need to be wary of is the fragility of Merz’s coalition government. Scandal or a loss of support in the Bundestag could lead to a freeze in legislation and the passing of a necessary budget. Germany’s domestic issues, such as jobs and immigration, could also pressure the coalition and fragment German politics before any progress is made on these reformist policies.

In other words, Germany desperately needs to address economic and social issues in order to retain the political stability it needs to get back on track and pursue long-term growth.

Sources: DW, Reuters, Yahoo, Reuters

Boeing Union Rejects Offer, Machinists Strike Begins

Summary
On 3 August, IAM union members of District 837 in St. Louis, Missouri, rejected a labor agreement offer from Boeing. A worker strike is scheduled to begin at midnight tonight, 4 August. The strike will affect Boeing’s production lines at facilities in Missouri and Illinois, thereby affecting the production of advanced military aircraft and weapons.

Findings

• Background: In September 2024, union members from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) working for Boeing organized a labor strike. More than 33,000 machinists took part in the strike, the first since 2008, which resulted in manufacturing delays, new labor contracts, and billions in losses for Boeing.
  On 27 July, Boeing offered a renewed agreement which was rejected by the IAM union.

• Recent Offer: On 3 August, Boeing offered 3,200 IAM members a four-year labor contract which was rejected.
  The offer, according to First Alert 4 and St. Louis Public Radio, included a 20% pay increase over 4 years, work scheduling reform, a $0.50 per hour increase to top-scale employees, and a pension modification. The original deal also increased vacation and sick time, as well as 401(k) improvements.
  The IAM union rejected the deal, stating it is unfair due to top-scale employees not being eligible for some of the new changes.

• Production Risks: The IAM union stated that the 3,200 striking workers “assemble and maintain advanced aircraft and weapons systems,” which includes the F-15, F/A-18, and “cutting-edge missile and defense technologies.”

Why This Matters
Given the strike’s undetermined length, Boeing could face significant manufacturing delays, which would disrupt U.S. readiness and fulfillment of certain foreign weapons sales. Additionally, the loss of production and revenue risks the shifting of resources and the disruption of other Boeing projects.

Despite having reached substantial deals in the past, the IAM strikes appear likely to continue. Boeing will either face major manufacturing delays or massive increases to payroll and benefits payouts. In January, Boeing’s Defense, Space, and Security (BDS) segment reported a $5.4 billion loss from operations for FY2024.

Sources: First Alert 4, IAM, St. Louis Public Radio, Boeing, Via Satellite

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

— Nick