Good morning,

Happy Memorial Day. This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

Reporting Period: 22-26 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Putin Seeks To Establish “Buffer Zone” With Ukraine While Stating Openness To Peace Talks

Summary
On 22 May, Russian President Putin stated to senior officials that he is open to negotiations with Ukraine, but warned that offensive military operations will continue until a “buffer zone” is established in Ukrainian territory. The statement is contradictory to Moscow’s narrative of seeking peace, and instead reinforces assessments that Russia is using diplomacy as a tool of strategic obfuscation, to delay and confuse Western support for Ukraine and to disrupt Kyiv’s military operations.

Findings

• Conditional Peace Offer: Putin declared that while Russia is ready for dialogue, peace is contingent on Ukraine accepting battlefield losses and surrendering territory. He tied a ceasefire to the creation of a demilitarized “buffer zone” within Ukraine to protect Russian regions from long-range attacks.

• Strategic Objective: The demand for a buffer zone indicates Russia’s intention to continue and expand offensive operations aimed at seizing Ukrainian territory, directly contradicting previous Kremlin assertions that Russia is securing only already-occupied areas.
  As Russia conducts those offensive operations, news media have reported an increase in drone strikes on Kyiv and other urban centers, indicating Moscow’s intent to pressure Ukraine into hasty and unfavorable peace talks.

• Information Warfare: Putin’s statements serve a dual purpose: placating domestic and foreign audiences tired of the war while keeping pressure on Ukraine and its Western backers. This aligns with Russia’s long-standing use of diplomacy and information operations as parallel tools of warfare.

• Battlefield Reality: Despite talk of negotiations, Russian forces are actively pursuing new offensives, especially in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. The contradiction between words and actions erodes credibility and reinforces perceptions that Moscow’s intent is territorial expansion, not peace.

Why This Matters
By signaling readiness for negotiations while intensifying military action, Moscow aims to fracture Western unity, delay weapons deliveries, and disrupt Ukraine’s defensive planning. This suggests Russia’s stated diplomatic intentions, even to the U.S., are a strategic ploy and remain of secondary or tertiary interest to Moscow.

Additionally, if Western leaders are to assume Russia will continue the war in Ukraine, there are some developments which are likely to occur:

• New sanctions packages against Russia.

  • The EU recently implemented its 17th sanctions package on Russia and is already working on the 18th.

• New military aid for Ukraine.

  • This potentially includes weapons systems, munitions, and increased intelligence sharing.

• Foreign support for Russia.

  • Iran and, most recently, China, have expanded their strategic partnerships with Russia. North Korea has already displayed its willingness to aid Putin’s war effort. As the war continues, this likelihood grows.

• Discord between EU and NATO members.

  • As the war rages, and demand for support for Ukraine increases, we are more likely to see Western displeasure for Kyiv and the legacy institutions that support it (such as the EU and NATO).

Sources: Kyiv Post, YouTube, Euromaidan Press, Pravda

NATO’s 2025 Spring Session Concludes In Dayton, OH

Summary
On 25 and 26 May, the 2025 Spring Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NPA) convened in Dayton, Ohio. More than 300 representatives from 32 nations attended the session. Secretary General Mark Rutte attended and met with a U.S. Congressional Delegation.

Findings

• Commemoration of the Dayton Peace Accords: The Assembly's location in Dayton holds historical significance, as the city hosted the negotiations that led to the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, ending the Bosnian War. This session coincides with the 30th anniversary and will likely be used to pressure peace in Ukraine.

• Focus on Contemporary Security Threats: Discussions addressed current challenges, including Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine, cyberattacks, and the growing hybrid warfare domain. Delegates emphasized the need for a stronger, more balanced NATO to effectively respond to these threats.
  Delegates are also likely to discuss and formalize the new proposal for 5% GDP defense spending for member states.

• Engagement with U.S. Leadership: NATO Secretary General Rutte participated in the session, engaging in bilateral meetings with U.S. Congressional leaders and addressing the Assembly to discuss the Alliance's strategic direction and the importance of transatlantic unity.
  It is uncertain if Rutte will head to Washington to meet with President Trump or senior officials before returning to Brussels.

• Public Outreach and Cultural Events: The Assembly featured public forums, cultural exhibitions, and educational programs aimed at increasing public understanding of NATO's role. Events such as the "Dayton Dialogue" facilitated discussions between policymakers, experts, and citizens on NATO's relevance to everyday Americans.

Why This Matters
The convening of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Dayton underscores the enduring significance of the Dayton Peace Accords and highlights the Alliance's commitment to addressing contemporary security challenges through collective action. By bringing together legislators from member states, the Assembly fosters dialogue and cooperation essential for maintaining international peace and stability.

Sources: NATO, WDTN, WHIO

U.S.-Iran Negotiations Make Minor Progress, Jeopardized By Middle East Tensions

Summary
On 23 May, the fifth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations concluded in Rome, Italy, where both parties reported minor progress. Despite the continued diplomacy, American and Iranian officials disagree on Iran’s uranium enrichment activities, which IAEA evidence suggests is a weaponization program. Talks are expected to continue despite recent intelligence suggesting Israel is planning military action on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Findings

• Iran’s Uranium Enrichment: The central impasse remains Iran's insistence on its sovereign right to enrich uranium domestically, a stance the U.S. opposes due to proliferation concerns. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the complexity of the negotiations but expressed hope for eventual solutions.
  Iran also seeks the removal of international sanctions, particularly ones targeting its energy industry.

• Omani Mediation: Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, acting as mediator, noted that while some progress was made, nothing was conclusive. He expressed optimism that core issues could be addressed in future sessions to reach a sustainable agreement.

• Israel: The negotiations are shadowed by Israeli threats to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that while Iran is not currently producing nuclear weapons, it has the capacity to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels within a short timeframe.
  IAEA inspections and reports support this assessment and suggest Iran has perpetually violated the previous “Iran Nuclear Deal.”

• Economic Pressures on Iran: Iran faces significant internal economic challenges, including a depreciating currency and social unrest, which may influence its engagement in the negotiations. Economic sanctions have also damaged Iran’s legitimate and illicit energy sector.

Why This Matters
The ongoing U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations are critical in preventing further escalation in the Middle East. While the recent talks in Rome have kept diplomatic channels open, the persistent disagreements, particularly over uranium enrichment, pose significant challenges. The potential for Israeli military action adds urgency to reaching a resolution. Continued dialogue and compromise are essential to achieving a sustainable agreement that addresses both nuclear non-proliferation and regional security concerns.

The U.S. has yet to abandon its promise that if a diplomatic solution cannot be made, airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are likely. However, Trump previously set a two-month deadline to reach a deal, a timeline that has been exceeded.

Sources: Axios, The Guardian, PBS, Fox News

Germany Considers Reinstating Military Conscription Due To Recruitment Difficulties

Summary
Germany, whose compulsory military service has been suspended since 2011, is considering its reinstatement due to ongoing recruitment issues. Defense Minister Pistorius announced that if voluntary enlistment does not meet targets, mandatory conscription could be reinstated as early as January 2026. This initiative aligns with Germany's new strategy to enhance its military capabilities and emerge as Europe’s leading military.

Findings

• Service Model Under Review: The Bundeswehr’s current recruitment strategy emphasizes voluntary service. If numbers of volunteers fall short, the government may implement mandatory conscription to fulfill personnel requirements. A new legislative framework is being prepared to facilitate this potential shift.

• Recruitment and NATO Commitments: The Bundeswehr aims to increase its personnel by approximately 100,000 soldiers to meet NATO obligations. The current force comprises around 179,000 active-duty members, with a target of 203,000. Reporting suggests that in a crisis scenario, Germany may need to field up to 465,000 troops, including reservists.

• Proposed Conscription Framework: The proposed model would require 18-year-old males to complete a questionnaire assessing their suitability for service. Selected individuals would undergo medical evaluations and participate in six months of basic training, with the option to extend service up to 23 months. The approach is inspired by Sweden's conscription system.

• Infrastructure and Training Capacity: The Bundeswehr can train approximately 5,000 new recruits annually. Plans are underway to expand training facilities and increase capacity to accommodate a larger number of conscripts in the future.

• Political and Public Support: The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), leading the current coalition government, supports the potential reinstatement of conscription. Public opinion appears favorable, with recent polls indicating that a significant portion of the population backs increased defense spending and military preparedness.
  According to Statista, Germany’s median age is 45, with a rapidly aging population.

Why This Matters
The consideration to reinstate military conscription reflects Germany's commitment to strengthening its defense capabilities amid heightened security concerns in Europe. By addressing personnel shortages in the Bundeswehr, Germany aims to fulfill its NATO commitments and enhance its readiness to respond to potential threats. The proposed conscription model seeks to balance the need for increased military staffing with the principles of voluntary service and individual assessment.

In sum, the proposed policy shift reflects Chancellor Merz’s desire to reform Germany’s security apparatus and to seize a greater role in NATO and the new ReArm Europe project.

Sources: DW, Reuters

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading.

Enjoy your Memorial Day — Remember who we honor, and why.

Nick