Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief, where I present you with the key geopolitical updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 21-25 August 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Russia-Ukraine Peace Process Stalls, Offensive Operations Continue

Summary
On 22 August, NBC News’ Meet the Press interviewed Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. In the interview, Lavrov stated that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is not planned and can only occur once Russia’s agenda is met. President Trump reinstituted the threat of sanctions on Russia if a ceasefire is not met. Both Russia's and Ukraine’s political rhetoric, combined with ongoing military operations, suggest a diplomatic freeze.

Findings

• Putin’s Demands: On 21 August, Putin reportedly issued demands on what it would take for Russia to end military operations in Ukraine. It includes:

  • No NATO membership for Ukraine

  • No Western troops on Ukrainian soil

  • Ukraine’s surrender of the Donbas oblast

  Fox News reports that these demands were delivered to Washington on 22 August. Fox News claims the demands also suggest Russia would freeze the frontline in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, and return territory in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropterovsk oblasts.

• Meet the Press Interview: On 22 August, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov spoke with Meet the Press, where he stated that Putin would meet with Zelenskyy “when the agenda is ready for a summit.” A meeting is not currently planned. Lavrov also stated that in the Alaska Summit between Trump and Putin, Russia and the U.S. “share” a perspective, while on others, Moscow agreed “to show some flexibility.”
  Lavrov’s interview suggests Moscow and Washington agree in some areas in which Zelenskyy remains inflexible:

  • No Ukrainian NATO membership

  • Territorial secession

  Lavrov also stated that Russia can only sign a deal with Ukraine’s “legitimate leader,” and that Zelenskyy is merely a “de facto head of the regime.”

• Ukraine and Europe: On 22 August, speaking alongside NATO Secretary-General Rutte, Zelenskyy stated that one of Ukraine’s primary objectives is to be guaranteed Article 5-like security guarantees from Europe and the U.S. In NATO, Article 5 is the mutual defense clause.
  Both Rutte and Zelenskyy are hopeful for such guarantees, but cited broken promises in the past, most notably the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
  Zelenskyy praised the PURL Program, which is securing weapons for Ukraine from the United States and European donation.
  Zelenskyy stated that he is ready to meet with Putin, but that Russia appears intent on prolonging the war.

Battlefield Updates: Despite the progress towards diplomacy, the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, with various developments suggesting peace negotiations may be more distant than anticipated:

• Drone Strikes: On 21 August, BBC reported that Russia had launched one of its largest drone and missile barrages in weeks, firing 574 drones and 40 missiles at targets in Ukraine.
  CNN also reported that Russia’s daily drone strikes have increased by 14 times over the past year.

• Druzhba Pipeline: At least three Ukrainian strikes have targeted the Druzhba pipeline, which provides oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The two EU member states have logged a formal complaint with the EU Commission, and Prime Minister Orban wrote to President Trump to voice his frustration.

• American Factory: On 21 August, two Russian cruise missiles struck an American-owned electronics factory in Ukraine. Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials highlighted that Russia’s strike showed disdain for ongoing efforts to end the war.

• Zapad Exercise: In September, Russia and Belarus will conduct joint exercise “Zapad-2025” from Belarusian territory. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry highlighted the following:

• Trump’s Position: On 22 August, clearly dissatisfied with the breakdown of diplomatic progress, President Trump stated that he would enact new sanctions on Russia if progress was not made in two weeks.
  Trump also cited the strike on the American electronics factory, saying he is “not happy about it, and I’m not happy about anything having to do with that war.”

Why This Matters
Coming out of the Alaska and White House summits, there was reason to believe that diplomatic progress would be made towards ending the war in Ukraine. Now, with all the diplomatic posturing, Russian sidestepping, media inflammation, and battlefield developments, it is increasingly likely that the diplomatic front will freeze for a time.

Now, the most likely path to peace looks more and more like total American facilitation, which could include a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump, and Zelenskyy. If we look at a timeline and the recent trends, this could occur in approximately two weeks, the end of Trump’s newest sanctions threat.

For a location, it is uncertain. If Trump were involved, there would be no reason the U.S. could not host such a meeting. However, Zelenskyy previously entertained a meeting in Switzerland, Austria, or Turkey, and ruled out Hungary.

The resurgence of the Russian-Belarusian “Zapad” exercise is also concerning, and gives some urgency to diplomacy. The threat of a new Russian offensive towards Kyiv from Belarus, or worse, Minsk’s participation, makes the establishment of a ceasefire more desirable.

The reality is, if a major diplomatic breakthrough is not made now—with all the momentum that has been built—it will be unlikely to happen organically between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia appears content and capable of continuing its drone-supported offensives (despite the looming economic issues), and Kyiv maintains incredible European and American support (despite a manpower dilemma).

Sources: ABC News, BBC, UNN, BBC, NPR, Reuters, Fox News, Reuters

Netanyahu To Resume Negotiations With Hamas Despite Ongoing Gaza City Offensive

Summary
On 21 August, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel would resume negotiations with Hamas, but would only accept terms that favor Israel. On 24 August, media outlets began reporting that Israel’s new offensive into Gaza City had begun, indicating that combat operations against Hamas would continue despite both parties taking part in background diplomacy.

Findings

• Gaza City Offensive: On 20 August, CNN reported that Israel was preparing to begin its offensive operation into Gaza City. Israel mustered “tens of thousands” of reservists for the operation, which will include upwards of 60,000 reservists.
  Israel currently occupies roughly 75% of Gaza, with Netanyahu claiming Gaza City is the last Hamas stronghold. Netanyahu states that despite international condemnation, the offensive is the fastest way to end the war.

• Shaping Operation: On 24 August, BBC reported that Israeli forces had begun launching strikes on targets in Gaza City in preparation for the IDF’s ground combat elements’ entry into the area of operations.

• Israel-Hamas Negotiations: On 21 August, under pressure from nationwide protests, Netanyahu stated that Israel would resume negotiations with Hamas to secure the release of hostages. Netanyahu stated that terms to end the war must favor Israel’s interests.
  Israeli Defense Minister Katz warned that unless hostages are released and a ceasefire is established, Gaza City could be turned to rubble like “Rafah and Beit Hanoun,” and that the war will continue until Hamas “agree to Israel’s conditions for ending the war.”

• On Monday, 18 August, Hamas had accepted the ceasefire terms put forth by Egypt and Qatar. Critics in Israel and abroad believe Netanyahu and his regime are using hostages as a cause to continue the war and pursue the “Greater Israel Project.” Netanyahu claims the offensive in Gaza City is to end the war, secure hostages, and liberate Gaza by establishing a non-Hamas and non-Palestinian Authority government.

Why This Matters
Only time will tell if the ground offensive into Gaza City is the quickest way to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Given Iran’s grip on terrorist proxies in the region and unresolved grievances between Tehran and Israel, it is likely that some type of conflict will persist in the region regardless of Hamas’ defeat.

Additionally, one of the adjacent points of interest is the growing anti-Israel block in the international community, which now includes a great deal of European states. Most nations have agreed that Israel’s offensive into Gaza City is an unnecessary expansion of the war that will usher in further humanitarian crises. Some even suggest Israel’s regional military campaigns are to, somehow, shield Netanyahu from domestic scrutiny. Notable exceptions to this, with some nuance, are Germany and the United States. Dozens of countries, including Western European states, are planning to recognize Palestine as a soveriegn nation during the UN General Assembly in September.

Such diplomatic overtures could go even further, with proposals to have Netanyahu arrested and tried for war crimes in the International Criminal Court gaining ground. The U.S. has maintained its position of support for Israel, but has suggested that a hostage deal and ceasefire could quickly end the war.

Sources: CNN, BBC, Reuters, PBS

Hegseth Fires DIA Director Following Investigation, Controversial Iran Assessment

Summary
On 22 August, The Washington Post reported that Secretary of Defense Hegseth had fired the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). Kruse’s deputy director will run the DIA in the interim. Media and critics suggest the decision was made because Kruse’s intelligence assessments on Iran conflicted with the White House’s own assessments, but the DIA was under FBI investigation since June, following leaks of classified reports on Iran.

Findings

• Defense Intelligence Agency: The DIA is the principal intelligence agency for the U.S. military service components, defense policymakers, Department of Defense planners, and other agencies supporting U.S. military operations. Its self-described mission is to “Provide intelligence on foreign militaries to prevent and decisively win wars.”

• Investigation: On 25 June, Secretary Hegseth, alongside the FBI, launched an investigation into leaks regarding DIA and CENTCOM assessments on Operation Midnight Hammer. Classified reports were leaked from the DIA.
  In May, a DIA employee was arrested for trying to transmit classified information to a foreign agent.

• Leadership Change: On 22 August, Lieutenant General Kruse was removed as the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. In the interim, Deputy Director Bordine will act as the agency’s director.
  Kruse was appointed to the position in December 2023 and would have remained until 2027 by precedent.
  The official reason for his removal was a “loss of confidence,” but critics of the decision and American media suggest that Kruse’s assessment of Operation Midnight Hammer—the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities—conflicted with the White House’s assessment that Iran’s facilities were obliterated.

• Recent Firings: Lt. Gen. Kruse is the latest high-level military official to be removed from their position. Here is a non-comprehensive list of senior officials and the positions they were fired from:

  • Vice Admiral Lacore, Office of the Chief of U.S. Navy Reserve

  • Rear Admiral Sands, Commander of Naval Special Warfare Command

  • General Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  • Admiral Francehtti, Chief of Naval Operations

  • Admiral Fagan, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard

  • General Allvin, Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force (was asked to retire)

  • General Haugh, Director of the National Security Agency

  • Michael Collins, Chair of the National Intelligence Council

Why This Matters
Many believe that the Trump administration has pushed out senior officials to slowly and quietly introduce right-leaning politicization into America’s intelligence organizations and military. While this may be true to some degree, the administration’s stated goal has been to remove ideological bias and political scheming from the intelligence and defense communities, and instead appoint officials focused on national security and aiding American warfighters. This is a part of the administration’s “Peace Through Strength” initiative for the defense world, which emphasizes heightened standards, cultural reform, and warfighting-centric attitudes and efforts.

Accusations that the U.S. intelligence community is politicized have persisted for years, and existed long before Trump took office, with some officials and testimonies claiming interference in American domestic affairs, rampant intelligence leaks and espionage, and IC organizations becoming overly bureaucratic and bloated.

Lieutenant General Kruse’s firing is very likely a result of the Iran assessment, as well as continued leaks and scandals from within the DIA.

Sources: Defense Intelligence Agency, The Washington Post, NBC News, CNN, U.S. Department of Justice, POLITICO

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

— Nick