Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. We are back to the regular publication schedule, so let’s review some key updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 2-6 October 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Israel Accepts Trump’s 20-Point Gaza Peace Plan, Awaiting Hamas Compliance

Summary
On October 4, 2025, President Trump confirmed that Israel has agreed to an “Initial Withdrawal Line” for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) once his 20-point peace plan is adopted. Trump confirmed that Israel’s withdrawal will be dependent on hostage releases, which will set conditions for further phases to end the war.

Findings

• Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan: On October 3, 2025, the White House published President Trump’s 20-point plan for ending the war in Gaza (X, BBC). The plan includes some notable conditions, such as the reconstruction of Gaza, hostage and prisoner exchanges, troop withdrawals, humanitarian aid deliveries, Gaza governance, and economic investment (BBC). Trump’s terms state that the plan will go into effect 72-hours after Israel publicly accepts the terms, which implies Israel will validated Hamas’ compliance before ceasing military operations.

• IDF Withdrawal: On October 4, 2025, Israel agreed to these terms, and the conditions for initial withdrawals, which places the peace process in Hamas’ hands. Should Hamas agree to the terms, and Israel acknowledge compliance, IDF withdrawals will begin alongside prisoner and hostage exchanges, meaning the war could end this week.

  • Negotiations in Egypt: Currently, American, Israeli, and Hamas delegates are meeting in Egypt to negotiate details of the peace plan (Al Jazeera). Reporting suggests that military strikes have continued during negotiations (Al Jazeera, CNN).

Why This Matters
The looming question is whether or not the war will actually end soon. The likelihood of that is entirely dependent on two things happening in sequence:

• An agreement or settlement between Israel and Hamas during the Egypt negotiations.

• Israeli and Hamas compliance to ceasefire terms.

It is very likely that even if a deal is reached, Hamas cells or affiliated actors could continue to conduct terrorism operations even if a deal is reached. Israel non-compliance, while possible, is less likely given the pressure from Washington and scrutiny from around the globe. Observers should also consider that if there is a conventional end to the conflict, there are zero indications that Israel or Hamas will cease hostile activities through affiliates, proxies, or clandestine organizations.

One of the reasons Trump seems so intent on ending the conflict is because of how Netanyahu’s expansion of the war deteriorated Israel’s reputation abroad and, by extension, the soft power (or reputation) of the United States. Given the recent developments at the UN General Assembly, where some European allies recognized Palestinian statehood, it is not a reach to say that the Trump administration is finding it difficult to continue to rhetorically or ideologically support Israel. Supporting them financially or militarily is, however, constant.

Remember, U.S. soft power is highly dependent on our global reputation and consistencies (or inconsistencies) in foreign policy goals and concepts. To support Israel against Hamas and Palestine, to some, seems like a juxtaposition to supporting Ukraine against Russian nation building. The same can be said of efforts to ensure Taiwanese statehood against Chinese aggression.

And finally, a termination of the conflict by Trump’s hand could help entice Iran to re-enter the negotiation table regarding nuclearization. This is an issue that, if left unaddressed could compel conflict.

Japan Set To Have First Female Prime Minister

Summary
On October 3, 2025, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected Sanae Takaichi as party president. As president of Japan’s ruling party, Takaichi is very likely to become Japan’s next prime minister, and its first female in the role.

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Findings

• Background: On September 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba announced his resignation due to pressure from within his own party (CSIS). His resignation triggered a leadership crisis within the LDP, which led to party presidential elections.

• Takaichi Profile: AP News styles Takaichi as an “ultra-conservative” who admires Margaret Thatcher and the policies, ideology, and vision or former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe (AP News). She is the first president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and is on track to be the country’s first female prime minister (BBC, AP News). BBC’s profile suggests that Takaichi may have a tough time balancing social reforms and policies against Japan’s culture, despite Takaichi being a traditionalist (BBC).

• LDP Presidency: On October 3, 2025, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) convened to elect its president, the party’s most senior leader (Nikkei Asia). Sanae Takaichi, in her third bid for LDP president, secured the nomination (Nikkei Asia, BBC).

  • Japanese Governance: In Japanese, like most parliamentary systems, a prime minister is chosen to run the country when a party, or coalition of parties, achieves a majority of elected seats. In this case, the LDP is the majority party, but was without a PM due to Shigeru Ishiba announcing his resignation on September 7, 2025 (CSIS). Now, Takaichi is most likely to become PM after becoming LDP president.

Why This Matters
Takaichi is in a very interesting position. On one hand, she is a social and cultural traditionalist, she appreciates the U.S.-Japanese relationship but knows Japan is second fiddle, and she is for military growth and a hawkish stance on China.

In this regard, Takaichi could be exactly what Japan needs to address growing security concerns, but also continued economic and demographic crises. It is also ironic that as a traditional conservative, Takaichi’s position makes her one of Japan’s most progressive leaders in history. As the first woman to become LDP party president, and likely the first female prime minister in the same swing, Takaichi is likely to have a tough time making policies related to Japanese culture, tradition, and values. On one hand, she will be expected to be a reformer, but also a champion for the “old ways” in a male dominant party and profession.

I see two potential paths: Her tenure as prime minister will be very interesting to observe and could either be the next iconic Japanese cabinet or another short-lived caretaker government.

Babiš Wins Czech Elections, Likely To Be Next Prime Minister

Summary
On October 4, 2025, Czech polling data concluded that Andrew Babiš won Czechia’s parliamentary elections. Babiš, the chairman of the ANO opposition party, secured more than 34.7% of votes. Babiš is likely to shop minority coalitions to achieve a parliamentary majority and secure the premiership. Ultimately, the Czech president confirms and appoints a government.

Findings

• Czech Elections: On October 3 and 4, 2025, Czech citizens took to polling stations nationwide to cast their votes for parliamentary elections (Radio Prague International). Czechs elected 200 members of the Czech Parliament. The ruling SPOLU coalition and outgoing Prime Minister Petr Fiala conceded to the growing ANO party (Radio Prague International).

• Babiš Profile: NPR and POLITICO style Babiš as a populist, euro-skeptic, and anti-immigration leader (NPR, POLITICO). Babiš and his ANO party rapidly gained popularity due to Prime Minister Fiala failing to address economic and energy crises, waning support for Ukraine, and plans for pension reform (NPR). Babiš also adopted a populist and pseudo-nationalist approach to Czech issues, citing EU overreach and the retreat of Western values in Europe.

• Political Divide: On October 5, 2025, Czechia’s President, Petr Pavel, stated that assumptions of a Babiš premiership are “premature,” and that he will prioritize the confirmation of a government based on Western values, public institutions, and EU and NATO membership (POLITICO).

• What’s Next?: While Babiš and ANO may have won the parliamentary elections, they do not retain an outright majority. Babiš will look to create a coalition government with minority parties, likely the Motorists for Themselves and SPD parties (POLITICO). In an unlikely scenario, the SPOLU coalition could break piecemeal, or form a direct coalition with Babiš and ANO. In that scenario, Babiš would seek to retain the premiership and high-level cabinet positions for himself and his party.

Why This Matters
Mainstream media are classifying Babiš’ win as a defeat for Western values and unified efforts in the EU and NATO, such as support for Ukraine. Babiš is a reflection of growing discontent for EU supranationalism, especially in Central and Eastern Europe where Brussels’ oversight and policy agendas do not necessarily reflect member interests or policy concerns in an equitable or substantive way.

As a result, the Babiš and ANO victory is being portrayed as a anti-EU, anti-NATO, and pro-Russian victory in Europe. Mainstream media have already begun to portray Babiš as a figure similar to Slovakia’s Robert Fico or Hungary’s Viktor Orbán; notable dissenters from EU policies, especially regarding energy.

Alone, these elections results may not be significant, but due to a growing bloc of right-wing leaders in the region (such as in Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania), we could soon see a right-wing/conservative resurgence in Europe, and one that ultimately takes the helm of the EU. So keep an eye on the collective EU blocs and policy pursuits, but trust that Czechia will focus on its domestic issues in turn.

President Macron Appoints New French Prime Minister, Government

Summary
On October 5, 2025, it was confirmed the French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Sebastien Lecornu as Prime Minister of his new government. Lecornu is the fifth prime minister to be appointed in 21 months, following Francois Bayrou’s resignation in September. A lack of support from parliamentary opposition means Lecornu could face an early exit.

Findings

• Background: On September 8, 2025, Prime Minister Bayrou called for a vote of no confidence in parliament, but surprisingly failed the vote with 364 votes against and 194 in support (Anadolu Ajansi). Bayrou was the fourth prime minister since 2024 to resign (Anadolu Ajansi).

• Lecornu Appointment: On October 5, 2025, French and international media confirmed that President Macron has appointed Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister (France 24). Lecornu was picked in September, but his position and cabinet were confirmed Sunday (POLITICO). Lecornu has established a veteran cabinet:

  • Bruno Le Mare as Minister of Defense

  • Roland Lescure as Minister of Finance (probable)

  • Manuel Valls as Minister of Overseas Territories

  • Jean-Noel Barron retains Minister of Foreign Affairs

  • Bruno Retailleau retains Minister of the Interior

Why This Matters
Lecornu faces some significant opposition in France, as he will have to balance policy desires from Les Republicains, left-wing socialists, and Macron’s Renaissance party. Additionally, Macron’s undemocratic efforts to keep the National Rally party and Marine Le Pen from a leader role in the democratic process further pressures historic adversaries to make major compromises on policy to keep a functioning government.

The major issues that Lecornu faces, which drove out his predecessors, was disparate visions for economic crises, energy, trade, and immigration, as well as significant reform for security. So if Lecornu cannot find a way to make amicable economic and social policies, within the limits of the French constitution, the premiership may continue to be a revolving door (which could embolden voter alternatives such as National Rally).

Additionally, if the premiership continues to be a revolving door, French officials and citizens may begin to demand Macron’s resignation as president, a decision he has already stated he will not do.

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!
— Nick