Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review key geopolitical updates from the weekend, particularly the U.S. strikes on Iran’s major nuclear facilities.

Reporting Period: 19-23 June 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

U.S Conducted Precision Strikes On Iran’s Major Nuclear Facilities

Summary
On 21 June, President Trump announced that the U.S. had carried out precision strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump, backed by Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Hegseth, stated that American strikes destroyed Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear sites. Iranian state media declared that American civilian and military personnel in the region are now targets.

Findings

• Announcement: From the White House, President Trump delivered a short and straightforward address. He stated that U.S. aviators conducted precision bombings on Iran’s major nuclear facilities. Trump stated that Iran should pursue peace or face further attacks from the U.S. and Israel.

  • Response: Trump’s decision to conduct Operation Midnight Hammer has drawn broad support in Congress, but a smaller bipartisan group of lawmakers has questioned the legality of the strikes. Under Article 1, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution, only Congress can declare war.
    Many European powers, such as Germany, France, Italy, and the UK have supported the strikes.

• Operation Midnight Hammer: On 22 June, Secretary Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine briefed media on Operation Midnight Hammer. Reportedly, U.S. Air Force B-2A stealth bombers dropped 14 GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrators on the Natanz and Fordo nuclear facilities. General Caine stated that a single submarine (likely of the Ohio-class) fired more than two-dozen “Tomahawk” missiles on the Isfahan nuclear facility.

• Iranian Response: Iranian state media declared that all American military or civilian personnel in the region will be considered valid targets for retaliatory strikes. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) declared the strikes a violation of international law, and that the international community should condemn the strikes.
  On 22 June, Iran’s parliament approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route that facilitates the transport of 1/5 of the global oil supply. The decision is pending approval by Iran’s National Security Council.

Why This Matters
The U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities are a significant development to the ongoing Israel-Iran Conflict. By targeting hardened nuclear sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Washington has not only degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities but also signaled a clear willingness to use overwhelming force in pursuit of core policy goals.

Iran’s threats to target American personnel and close the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—increases the risk of a global energy crisis and military confrontation in the Middle East.

U.S. forces, especially across CENTCOM, are now likely to face a surge in asymmetric retaliation, including attacks from Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

Sources: USNI News, U.S. Department of Defense, CNBC, BBC

U.S. Army Tests New C-UAS Radar

Summary
On 20 June, U.S. Army personnel in Germany tested a Stryker-mounted EchoShield radar system designed to identify and track low-flying drones. The U.S. Army tests were a part of Project Flytrap, a multinational endeavor to improve counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS).

Findings

• Project Flytrap: Project Flytrap is a series of C-UAS exercises in Germany and Poland that runs from June to August 2025. While coverage focuses mostly on the EchoShield capability, U.S. Army footage displayed the employment of various man-portable C-UAS systems, such as the Titan UAS jammer, Wingman and Pitbull portable C-UAS devices, and the Smartshooter SMASH 2000L.

• EchoShield Radar: The test featured EchoShield, a software-defined Ku-band pulse-Doppler radar developed by Echodyne. It was integrated onto a U.S. Army Stryker platform to provide mobile counter-drone detection. Defence Blog reports that EchoShield detects and tracks hundreds of aerial targets simultaneously with angular precision under 0.5°.
  The radar includes a C-UAS mode for tracking drones that fly low, fast, and with erratic patterns. It can also operate in a “Dismount Mode” for increased detection fidelity.

Why This Matters
Project Flytrap, and the successful employment of the EchoShield radar for C-UAS operations, is a refreshing sign from the U.S. Army. It indicates a desire and acumen for U.S. and allied forces to adapt to emerging threats and create solutions, countermeasures, and new capabilities.

It also indicates a new role for Army cavalry; an opportunity to provide forward-deployed units with a mobile sensor suite capable of rapid detection, tracking, and targeting of adversary UAS systems.

Sources: Defence Blog, DVIDS, National Guard, DVIDS, Stars and Stripes

Putin Downplays Looming Recession As Russia Continues Offensive Operations In Ukraine

Summary
Between 18 and 22 June 2025, Russia's Economy Minister publicly warned that the country is "on the brink of recession," citing high inflation, slowing growth, and the burdens of wartime spending. In the same period, President Putin downplayed the comments on a looming recession. Russia continues offensive operations in Ukraine while refusing to engage in meaningful negotiations. Recent diplomatic overtures by Ukraine, including calls for a ceasefire and the return of deported civilians, were dismissed by Moscow, which has reiterated maximalist demands. The Kremlin’s strategy reflects a determination to sustain military pressure despite domestic economic deterioration.

Findings

• Russian Economy: Russia’s Q1 2025 GDP growth fell to 1.4%, the weakest since early 2023. Inflation exceeds 10%, and interest rates remain at 20%, choking domestic investment. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov acknowledged that "the risk of recession is real." Defense spending now consumes nearly one-third of the federal budget.

• Stalled Peace Negotiations: Talks held in Istanbul in early June yielded only a prisoner exchange agreement. Ukraine offered a 30-day ceasefire and the return of deported children, but Russia refused. Russian officials continue to demand recognition of occupied territories, Ukrainian demilitarization, no NATO accession for Ukraine, and the establishment of a buffer zone. Additionally, Putin has requested a “reset” of diplomatic relations with the U.S. to address fundamental disagreements that led to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  No further negotiations are scheduled as of 22 June.

• Ongoing Military Operations: Russia has escalated drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy and logistics infrastructure. Ukraine has expanded deep-strike campaigns into Russian border regions, targeting fuel depots and railway hubs. Kremlin messaging suggests confidence in military progress, despite a troubled economy.

Why This Matters
Russia is attempting to prosecute a long war while forestalling a recession. The Kremlin’s refusal to engage in serious diplomacy reflects an overreliance on military pressure, but this strategy is economically unsustainable in the long term, especially when we consider that Russia’s booming industry is producing military equipment (which gets destroyed or captured), and that the Russian military will need rebuilt after the war.

For Ukraine and its Western backers, this economic fragility presents both risk and opportunity:

• Risk, in that Russia may escalate militarily to force concessions before economic conditions worsen. This is exacerbated by the U.S.’s shifting focus to the Middle East.

• Opportunity, in that sanctions and strategic pressure could erode Russia’s operational endurance or compel limited diplomatic engagement. This is exacerbated by Iran’s fragile position (i.e. Tehran is a massive weapons and energy partner to Russia).

Sources: AP News, BBC, Newsweek

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

Nick

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