Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. This brief covers the most critical high-level geopolitical updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 15-19 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Russia-Ukraine Diplomacy Stalls After Meeting In Turkey; Trump To Speak With Putin And Zelenskyy

Summary
On 16 May, Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Istanbul for their first direct diplomatic engagement since 2022. Russia's delegation was considered low-level, raising concerns that the talks were a stalling tactic. President Trump is scheduled to speak separately with Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy on 19 May to broker a ceasefire. Despite being a new opportunity for high-level diplomacy, serious disagreements remain over territorial sovereignty and Russian demands.

Findings

• Meeting in Turkey: On 16 May, Russian and Ukrainian officials met at the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul, Turkey. The meeting was the first official diplomatic engagement between Russia and Ukraine since 2022.
  Russian President Putin, who originally stated the need for direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv, did not attend the meeting after Ukrainian President Zelenskyy offered to meet with Putin directly.
  The talks in Turkey lasted nearly 2 hours, but only amounted to terms for a prisoner exchange.

• Future Negotiations: It is uncertain when the next direct talks between Russia and Ukraine will take place, who will moderate, and if heads of state will attend. Ukraine’s delegation reported that the Russian party made “new and unacceptable demands,” including the withdrawal of troops from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.
  Russia’s delegation was considered low-level, with the talks adding to the concern that Russia is using diplomacy to buy time, confuse efforts, and distract and dilute pressure internationally.

• U.S. Interest: On Monday, 19 May, President Trump has scheduled a phone call with Putin. The pair will discuss ending the war and implementing a ceasefire. After his call with Putin, Trump will hold a conversation with Zelesnkyy and “various members of NATO.”
  On 15 May, speaking at the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Turkey, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated a meeting between Trump and Putin would be needed for a breakthrough. On 17 May, Rubio held a call with Lavrov (his Russian counterpart) and stated the U.S. had formally presented a peace plan.

Why This Matters
The renewed diplomatic contact between Russia and Ukraine—facilitated by Turkey and now drawing in the United States—marks a significant, if fragile, shift in the geopolitical landscape of the war. The unprecedented prisoner exchange suggests some mutual interest in stabilizing certain aspects of the conflict, but the talks' limited scope and Russia's low-level delegation indicate that Moscow may be using diplomacy to stall Ukrainian momentum and international pressure. President Trump’s upcoming calls with both Putin and Zelenskyy signal a potential new phase in U.S. engagement, possibly reviving Washington’s role as a central mediator. However, the success of this effort will depend on whether the proposed U.S. peace plan includes terms acceptable to Kyiv, and whether Russia is genuinely seeking a resolution or merely a tactical advantage. This moment is critical for NATO, which must balance diplomacy with continued military and economic support for Ukraine to avoid incentivizing further aggression by Russia.

Sources: NBC News, BBC, Sky News, BBC, CNN

NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting Concludes In Turkey

Summary
On 14 and 15 May, NATO Foreign Ministers met in Turkey to discuss the future of defense and deterrence. The Foreign Ministers also began preparations for the June 2025 Foreign Ministers Summit in The Hague, Netherlands. Secretary Rubio states the alliance will look to increase domestic defense spending to 5% GDP over the next decade.

Findings

• June Summit Focus: Secretary General Rutte stated “a new baseline spending figure” will be the core deliverable for the June Summit, implying that NATO member states need to commit greater resources to their domestic defense spending and industry.

• Support for Ukraine: Rutte also stated that regardless of how negotiations develop, the alliance will continue to support Ukraine. Rutte stated NATO is committed to long-term support for Ukraine, as well as measures that “ensure a lasting peace.”

• U.S. Interests: While the Trump administration has looked to reel back its position in NATO (at least financially), Secretary of State Rubio stated that all members will agree to a goal of 5% GDP spending over the next decade.
  While the new requirement is expected to be the subject of the June Summit, Rubio’s statements have already been well received. Germany, notably, has supported Rubio’s statements.

Why This Matters
The NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Turkey is potentially more significant than mainstream media is suggesting. First, the push toward increased defense spending marks a major shift in NATO’s posture from reactive deterrence to proactive preparedness, especially in the face of the growing multilateralism bloc led by Russia, China, and Iran. Secretary General Rutte’s emphasis on infrastructure and resilience reflects lessons learned from Ukraine’s war, where supply chains, logistics, and civilian infrastructure have proven critical.

Second, the meeting, which was alongside the talks between Russia and Ukraine, seems to have aligned Turkey’s interests closer with NATO’s. Turkey’s role in the alliance had come under question under Erdogan’s rule, but the recent outpouring of support for Ukraine suggests the Turks are aligning more closely with the West. This is especially important given Turkey’s proximity to Syria and Iran.

The timing of the meeting, concurrent with the first direct Russia-Ukraine talks since 2022, highlights NATO’s dual-track approach: maintaining military strength while supporting diplomacy. The Trump administration’s engagement, particularly Secretary Rubio’s advocacy for expanded commitments, also indicates that the U.S. seeks to shape NATO's long-term direction without directly increasing its own financial burden. As the June summit approaches, consensus around higher spending and enduring support for Ukraine will be central to NATO’s credibility in deterring future conflicts and defending the liberal order in Europe.

Sources: BBC, Reuters

U.S. Energy Officials Discover Chinese Killswitches In American Power Grid

Summary
On 16 May, U.S. energy officials uncovered unauthorized communication devices — termed "kill switches" — embedded within Chinese-manufactured solar inverters and batteries installed across the nation's renewable energy infrastructure. These covert components, including hidden cellular radios, raise significant national security concerns due to their potential to allow remote manipulation or disabling of critical power systems.

Findings

• Unauthorized Communication Devices: Investigations revealed that certain Chinese-made solar inverters and batteries contained hidden cellular radios and other rogue communication modules not documented in product specifications. These devices could bypass standard cybersecurity measures, enabling unauthorized remote access to the power grid.

• Hybrid Threat: Experts warn that these embedded components could be exploited to destabilize the U.S. power grid, leading to large-scale blackouts or other disruptions. The ability to remotely control or disable energy infrastructure poses a strategic threat, particularly during geopolitical tensions.

• Widespread Deployment: Chinese companies, including Huawei, Sungrow, and Ginlong Solis, have supplied over 200 GW of inverters globally, with significant installations in the U.S. and Europe. The prevalence of these devices amplifies the potential risk to national energy security.

• Government Response: The U.S. Department of Energy is conducting a comprehensive review of foreign-manufactured components in the energy sector. Legislative measures, such as the proposed Chip Security Act, aim to mitigate vulnerabilities by reducing reliance on foreign technology in critical infrastructure.

Why This Matters
The discovery of hidden "kill switches" in Chinese-manufactured energy components underscores the vulnerabilities inherent in global supply chains, especially concerning critical infrastructure. As the U.S. increasingly integrates renewable energy sources, ensuring the security and integrity of these systems becomes paramount. The potential for foreign adversaries to exploit embedded technologies for strategic disruption necessitates a reevaluation of procurement practices and a push for domestic manufacturing capabilities.

It also raises questions as to what other sectors the Chinese — or other state actors — may be influencing.

Sources: Financial Times, Reuters

Space Force Advances Space-Based Sensors For Tracking Airborne Targets

Summary
The U.S. Space Force, in collaboration with the Air Force and U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), conducted demonstrations of space-based sensors designed to track airborne targets. These efforts aim to assess the feasibility of integrating satellite-based Air Moving Target Indicator (AMTI) capabilities with existing aerial platforms, such as the E-3 Sentry and the forthcoming E-7 Wedgetail, to enhance real-time surveillance and targeting.

Findings

• Prototype Satellites: General Guillot, Commander of NORTHCOM and NORAD, confirmed on 13 May that prototype AMTI satellites are currently operational in orbit. These satellites are being evaluated for their potential to provide precise tracking data on airborne objects to various military platforms.

• Integration with Existing Systems: Lieutenant General Bratton of the Space Force emphasized the importance of determining how effectively space-based AMTI capabilities can complement existing systems. The goal is to achieve a synergistic approach that leverages both space and air assets for comprehensive surveillance.

• Strategic Implications: The development of space-based AMTI is part of a broader initiative to create a layered defense architecture, enhancing the U.S. military's ability to detect and respond to the growing range of airborne threats. This capability is also seen as a potential component of the proposed "Golden Dome" homeland missile defense system.

Why This Matters
The advancement of space-based AMTI capabilities represents a significant step in modernizing the U.S. military's surveillance and defense infrastructure. By integrating satellite-based tracking with existing aerial systems, the Department of Defense aims to establish a more resilient and comprehensive approach to monitoring airborne threats — a critical function of command and control (C2) operations. This initiative not only enhances national security but also positions the U.S. to better address emerging challenges in the evolving landscape of global defense.

Sources: Breaking Defense, Aviation Week

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading.

See you Thursday,

Nick