Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s go over the major geopolitical updates from this weekend.

Reporting Period: 14-18 August 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump, Putin Meeting In Alaska Sets Ground For Future Talks

Summary
On 15 August, President Trump and President Putin met in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss the war in Ukraine and a potential peace deal. The meeting produced no formal deal but signaled tentative progress toward future negotiations. Both leaders expressed that a mutual understanding was established. Today, Trump is hosting President Zelenskyy and various European leaders at the White House.

Findings

• 2025 Alaska Summit: On 15 August, Russian President Putin was greeted by President Trump at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, to conduct a bilateral meeting on the war in Ukraine.
  Putin was accompanied by Foreign Minister Lavrov and Foreign Policy Aide Ushakov. President Trump was accompanied by Secretary of State Rubio and Special Envoy Witkoff.

  • Lead Up: President Trump coerced Russia to the table by threatening new sanctions if a ceasefire was not reached. Before the Alaska Summit, Trump stated there would be severe “consequences” if a deal was not reached.

  • Press Debrief: Following the summit, which lasted approximately two and a half hours, President Trump and Putin stated that an “understanding” had been reached. Putin departed without answering questions from reporters. Trump stated that “There’s no deal until there’s a deal,” implying that negotiations are ongoing. Knowing Trump would debrief NATO and the EU, Putin urged European leaders not to “torpedo the nascent progress.”
    Trump stated he would soon talk with Western partners, and thanked Putin for attending the summit. Putin toyed with the next meeting taking place in Moscow.

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• Other Details: Various economic offers and battlefield concessions were discussed to entice an initial peace deal, including using a Russian icebreaker to assist Alaska’s LNG expansion. Russia reportedly offered to freeze the frontline if Ukraine would withdraw its troops from Donetsk.
  Despite no formal diplomatic request being made, reporting states that both parties discussed the return of six Russian diplomatic properties in the United States as well as the restoration of air travel routes.
  Trump also stated that after speaking with European leaders, the U.S. is “more prepared than ever” to provide Ukraine with security guarantees.
  Interestingly, before the summit, Putin visited a U.S. monument honoring World War II veterans, where he laid flowers. He also visited Orthodox priests in Alaska.

• Next Steps: On 16 August, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he held a call with President Zelenskyy, European leaders, and NATO Secretary General Rutte. All parties agreed to pursue an immediate peace agreement, rather than a ceasefire. Today, Monday, 18 August, Trump will host Zelenskyy at the White House. Trump stated that “if all works out,” they will schedule a meeting with Putin.
  On 17 August, Trump posted on Truth Social that there has been “big progress on Russia,” and for the world to “stay tuned.” Currently, many of Europe’s major leaders are scheduled to attend the meeting at the White House today:

  • French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, British Prime Minister Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, EU Commission President von der Leyen, Finnish President Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Rutte

Why This Matters
The Alaska Summit fell short of its greatest and most desired potential, which was a fair and resolute peace in Ukraine. However, the summit has successfully laid the groundwork for future negotiations with Russia; negotiations that are likely to include Ukraine and the European Union.

Today’s meeting at the White House, and whatever dialogues and sessions ensue, is critical. Europe and Ukraine need to firmly establish what an acceptable peace will look like, or else the diplomatic progress made could be undone. In the U.S., this is a real concern as the Alaska Summit also revealed a diplomatic warming between Washington and Moscow despite Trump’s frustrations with Putin.

So, what is likely to be discussed today?

1. What Ukraine is willing to cede

2. What Ukraine will not cede, under any circumstances

3. Ukraine’s future EU and NATO accession

4. Diplomatic normalization

5. Security guarantees for Ukraine

Once these things are firmly defined and established, it is likely that a multilateral meeting with Russia will be organized.

Sources: CNN, BBC, ABC News, NPR, CBS News

U.S. Quietly Expands Operations In South America, Mexico

Summary
In recent weeks, the U.S. has substantially broadened its covert and overt operations against drug cartels in Mexico and South America. This includes deploying naval and air assets to the southern Caribbean, intensifying drone surveillance over Mexico, and security operations outside of the United States.

Findings

• Caribbean Deployment: The U.S. has dispatched air and naval forces—including warships, surveillance aircraft, and possibly submarines—to the southern Caribbean. These actions target narco-terrorist groups like Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, recently designated as global terrorist organizations.

• Cartel Targeting Directive: President Trump reportedly issued a secret directive empowering the Department of Defense to consider direct military action, potentially including drone or naval strikes, against designated cartels. No military intervention in Mexico is imminent, but planning is reportedly underway.

• Drone Operations in Mexico: Unarmed MQ-9 drones, operated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and other agencies, have flown deep into central Mexico for intelligence gathering. These operations support investigations into major cartel figures and were endorsed by the Mexican government.

• Cooperation and Sovereignty: Mexican President Sheinbaum has firmly rejected any U.S. military presence on Mexican soil while maintaining cooperation on surveillance and extraditions. Recently, Mexico extradited 26 high-level cartel suspects to the U.S., a significant collaboration under pressure from Trump’s administration.

Why This Matters
Labeling cartels as terrorist entities enables the U.S. to employ military tools and intelligence resources beyond traditional law enforcement, marking a significant escalation to military and security operations in this region. On top of the cooperation with Mexico and other South American states, the U.S. is pursuing operations in international waters and airspaces, avoiding breaches of sovereignty while expanding homeland security operations off of American soil.

Sources: The Warzone, Axios, The New York Times, Reuters

U.S. Seeks Shipbuilding Partnerships with South Korea and Japan to Counter China

Summary
On 16 August, U.S. Senators Duckworth and Kim traveled to South Korea and Japan to pursue strategic shipbuilding collaborations. With China producing 53% of global shipbuilding output compared to the United States’ 0.1% in 2024, the senators’ visit seeks to expand auxiliary fleet capacity, repair capabilities, and revitalize U.S. shipyards through foreign partnerships.

Findings

• Shipbuilding Capacity: In 2024, China produced over half of global shipbuilding output, while U.S. commercial shipbuilding accounted for just 0.1%. Senators Duckworth and Kim are meeting with leading shipbuilders in Seoul and Tokyo to explore cooperative ventures for constructing and repairing auxiliary naval vessels.
  Part of the recent U.S.-South Korean trade agreement is that it will help enhance American shipbuilding.

• Operational Priorities: The U.S. Navy’s auxiliary fleet, responsible for fueling and cargo transport, is aging and undersized, with several programs delayed or over budget.

• Industrial Leverage: South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean has already repaired the USNS Wally Schirra, and Seoul has proposed a $150 billion investment in U.S. shipbuilding under the Trump administration’s “Make American Shipbuilding Great Again” initiative.

• Regional Infrastructure: Partnerships with South Korea and Japan would allow U.S. ships to undergo maintenance closer to operational theaters, reducing downtime and improving readiness.

Why This Matters
The U.S. push to partner with South Korea and Japan reflects an urgent effort to close the maritime gap with China, whose dominance in shipbuilding threatens to undercut U.S. naval logistics and power projection in the Indo-Pacific.

By leveraging allied industrial capacity, Washington aims to strengthen its auxiliary fleet, reduce reliance on overstretched domestic shipyards, and enhance naval resilience in the region. These ventures also deepen alliance ties, signaling tighter defense-industrial integration and operational coordination among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. At home, foreign-backed investment in U.S. shipbuilding could reinvigorate domestic industry, modernize infrastructure, and support American jobs.

Strategically, the initiative underscores U.S. determination to contest Chinese dominance at sea while demonstrating to allies and adversaries alike that Washington intends to sustain maritime advantage in the Indo-Pacific.

Sources: AP News, The Independent, CT Post

End Brief

Thank you for reading!
— Nick