Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. This one is shorter than usual, but includes some critical details regarding Iran and the G7 Summit.

Reporting Period: 12-16 June 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Israel Launches Strikes On Iran Due To Continued Proxy War, Nuclear Developments

Summary
On 12 June, Israel launched a series of attacks against Iran in an effort to destroy Tehran’s nuclear program. Shortly after the strikes were conducted, the U.S. announced it played no role and that Israel’s decision was unilateral. Vowing vengeance, Iran has since retaliated and launched a series of missile attacks on Israel.

As of 2300 on 15 June, strikes in Israel and Iran continue to be reported.

Findings

• Operation Rising Lion: On 13 June, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel had carried out Operation Rising Lion. The operation, which included a series of airstrikes and attacks conducted by Mossad from inside Iran, targeted Iranian defense, industrial, and nuclear facilities.

• Lethal Effects: In his address, Netanyahu confirmed that the strikes were successful in targeting Iran’s senior military officials and leading nuclear scientists, including the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Salami.
  The New York Times reports that at least 5 of Iran’s senior nuclear scientists have been killed.
  Reporting on 15 June claims Israel “had a window” to launch strikes against Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, but President Trump intervened.

• Iranian Response: Following the attacks, Iran stated it would respond with lethal force. Iran’s varied response suggests the conflict will continue to escalate without intervention, rather than remain a tit-for-tat conflict similar to the events of October 2024.
  Iran has launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drone strikes against Israel, with most hitting non-military targets across Israel’s urban centers. A senior official stated Iran could launch over 2,000 projectiles into Israel.
  On 13 June, Iran raised the “Red Flag of Revenge” over the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom, Iran. The flag is a traditional symbol in Shiite Islam that signifies war and a call for retaliation, not just by Iran but by staunch followers of Shiite Islam.
  As of 14 June, Iran is considering shutting down the Strait of Hormuz to control the global oil market and pressure intervention.

• U.S. Involvement: While reports suggest the U.S. helped Israel with intelligence and air defense operations, Iran has repeatedly stated that the U.S. remains complicit in Israel’s operation. Iran stated it may soon include U.S. bases and regional assets in its retaliation efforts. Senior U.S. officials, such as Secretary of State Rubio and President Trump, have highlighted the operation as unilateral and warned Iran against attacking the United States.
  U.S.-Iranian nuclearization that have been occurring in Rome, Italy, have been paused, with Iran recalling its diplomats.

• IAEA Ruling: The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ruled that Iran has consistently violated the Obama-era Iran Nuclear Deal. The ruling was backed by the U.S., UK, France, and Germany.

Why This Matters
This operation marks the most significant escalation in Israel–Iran tensions since the October 2024 strikes and threatens to broaden into a direct regional war. The death of Iran’s military leadership and nuclear scientists is a profound blow to Tehran's strategic depth, but also risks galvanizing Iranian hardliners and Hezbollah-led proxy retaliation.

If Iran makes good on threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices could spike, and maritime security will become a frontline concern in the region. U.S. efforts to contain the crisis while avoiding entanglement will test its deterrence posture and alliance management in the Middle East.

With Iran potentially expanding its target list to include U.S. forces and allies, this has become the world’s most fragile conflict flashpoint.

Sources: The New York Times, Time, CNN, CNN, CBS News, BBC

G7 Leaders Gather In Canada

Summary
From 15 to 17 June, leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations convened in Kananaskis, Alberta, for a high-stakes summit dominated by global security threats. While the official agenda focused on economic resilience, artificial intelligence, and climate finance, the summit was overshadowed by the ongoing Israel–Iran conflict, renewed hostilities in Ukraine, and tensions in the Indo-Pacific. The absence of a joint communiqué reflects growing divergence within the G7 on how to confront these challenges, particularly amid the assertive foreign policy posture of the United States under President Trump.

Findings

• Top-Level Agenda: In addition to core G7 members (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the U.S.), invited leaders from Ukraine, India, and select Indo-Pacific partners participated. Canada avoided a formal joint statement, instead issuing a “chair’s summary” to defuse tensions over diverging U.S.–EU and U.S.–China policy lines.

• Israel–Iran Crisis: The summit was overshadowed by Israel’s Operation Rising Lion and Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes. While leaders emphasized restraint and called for de-escalation, there was no consensus on condemning or supporting Israel’s actions. Private discussions included contingency planning in the event of Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional destabilization.

• Ukraine and Russia: While not officially prioritized, the war in Ukraine remained a key topic in back-channel talks. Support for Kyiv was reaffirmed, but leaders did not announce new military commitments. Putin’s 2 June peace proposal in Turkey was viewed as disingenuous by most G7 leaders, though the U.S. signaled cautious interest in exploring diplomatic options.
  Russia has continued to conduct large-scale offensive operations supported by drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s cities and key infrastructure.

• Global Economic, AI, and Energy: G7 members reviewed AI governance proposals to manage dual-use risks and counter digital authoritarianism. Supply chain resilience and critical mineral access were core economic themes, with Canada highlighting its capacity to serve as a non-Chinese supplier of rare earths. Energy security discussions focused on potential oil market shocks tied to Iran and long-term diversification away from Russian and Chinese-dominated supply routes.

Why This Matters
Western coverage of the G7 Summit suggests a widening gap between political rhetoric and cohesive strategic action among the West’s leading economies. The absence of a joint communiqué, driven by policy divergence on Israel, China, and Ukraine, signals a weakening consensus at a time when geopolitical coherence is critical.

Although the summit made incremental progress on long-term goals like AI governance and supply chain security, the group’s inability to present a unified front on immediate security threats may embolden adversaries. As simultaneous flashpoints strain diplomatic and military bandwidth, the G7's internal cohesion and credibility face a pivotal test.

It my assessment that the result of the G7 will be that the U.S. more firmly establishes its intentions for its foreign policies — especially as Trump looks for an EU trade deal — and the expectations for our traditional allies. Trump will double down on the EU taking a bigger role in its own defense as the “Peace Through Strength” foreign policy concept continues to shape operational efforts in the Pacific and Middle East.

Sources: AP News, Reuters

U.S. Considers Cancelling USAF E-7 Wedgetail Program

Summary
The U.S. Air Force’s plan to replace the aging E-3 Sentry AWACS fleet with the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail is under threat. The Department of Defense has proposed canceling future E-7 procurement beyond the initial two prototypes, citing concerns about survivability in a contested airspace and a strategic pivot toward space-based ISR platforms. Congress is divided, with the House seeking to restore partial funding while the administration moves to reallocate funds toward Navy E-2D Hawkeye aircraft and next-generation space sensors.

Findings

• Program Overview: The E-7 Wedgetail, based on the Boeing 737, was chosen to replace the E-3 AWACS, with an initial plan to acquire 26 aircraft. The first two aircraft are already under contract with Boeing for ~$2.56 billion.

• Budget Cuts: The FY2026 defense budget proposal includes no funding for additional E-7 aircraft. R&D allocations remain (~$200 million), but procurement lines are effectively cut.

• Pentagon Justification: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified that the E-7 is “not survivable in the modern battlefield,” referencing threats from advanced air defenses and near-peer A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) environments.
  The DoD proposes reallocating ~$1.55 billion to purchase up to five Navy E-2D Hawkeyes to fulfill interim AEW&C requirements.

• Space ISR Emphasis: A growing strategic focus on space-based ISR is driving the shift. USAF leaders claim emerging low-orbit constellations could offer persistent surveillance with reduced vulnerability despite growing anti-satellite capabilities from Russia and China.

• Impact on Allies: Australia, the UK, and NATO partners have committed to the E-7 platform, raising concerns over interoperability should the U.S. abandon the program.

Why This Matters
The proposed cancellation of the E-7 Wedgetail program signals a significant doctrinal shift in U.S. airborne early warning and ISR posture. Relying on Navy E-2Ds and unproven space-based assets risks creating capability gaps during a period of rising global tensions with peer competitors like China and Russia. Terminating the program would also reduce interoperability with allies and partners already fielding the Wedgetail.

It is my assessment that the decision is a rushed one, with the DoD looking to make easy budget cuts as it looks to redefine its warfighting doctrine. While space-based ISR capabilities are growing, they do not necessarily provide the Air Force (or Joint Force) the capability to create a real-time air picture, a critical component in aviation early warning and command and control.

Sources: The Aviationist, Air and Space Forces Magazine

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

Nick