Good morning,

This is the Monday edition of The Intel Brief, where I review key geopolitical updates from the weekend. Let’s begin.

Reporting Period: 11-15 September 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

NATO Launches New Initiative To Bolster Eastern Defense Posture

Summary
On 12 September, NATO announced the commencement of Eastern Sentry. The Eastern Sentry activity is designed to enhance NATO’s core responsibility to “deter aggression and defend every Ally” in the security pact. The activity was created in response to Russia’s 10 September drone incursion into Poland, and the emergency session held following the invocation of NATO Article 4.

Findings

• Press Conference: On 12 September, NATO Secretary General Rutte and SACEUR General Grynkewich held a joint press conference regarding Russia’s drone incursions into NATO territories, as well as the launch of Eastern Sentry (NATO).

• Eastern Sentry: General Gynkewich stated that the order to begin Eastern Sentry began at the start of the press conference with Secretary General Rutte. Rutte stated that deployments will start in “the coming days” (Euractiv).
  General Grynkewich confirmed that Eastern Sentry will “cover the entire eastern flank of the alliance, from the high north to the Mediterranean” (Euronews). Due to Russia’s recent drone incursions and a heightened state of air defense readiness, the exercise will focus on the establishment of an integrated air defense system (IADS) (CNN).

  • IADS: An integrated air defense system is a complex system of air and ground-based platforms that support the surveillance, tracking, command and control, and weapons engagement to hostile aircraft and missiles (Congressional Research Service). In NATO, this concept is typically deployed within the Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) mission set (NATO). Eastern Sentry is very likely to support Poland’s ongoing air defense operations.

Why This Matters
Eastern Sentry underscores NATO’s determination to respond decisively to Russian provocations and reinforce the credibility of its collective defense commitments. It is also an excellent opportunity to show Putin and the Kremlin that Western patience is running thin regarding peace negotiations with Ukraine.

NATO’s concern, especially among the alliance’s eastern members, is that Russian incursions are increasing in size and frequency, and are not being properly addressed. Poland’s engagement of Russian drones on 10 September was really the first rock-solid response by a NATO member to Russia’s hybrid warfare techniques.

Poland, Romania Mobilize Assets Following Russian Drone Incursions, Zapad 2025 Exercise

Summary
Poland increased the state of readiness of its air defense assets and approved the deployment of NATO troops to its territory. Romania scrambled aircraft following Russian drone incursions into its airspace. These developments coincided with the ongoing Russian-Belarusian “Zapad” exercise, raising concerns over deliberate escalation along NATO’s eastern flank.

Findings

• Background: On 10 September, Polish Prime Minister Tusk confirmed that Russian drones entered Polish airspace. After Polish and NATO assets detected, identified, and tracked the drones, at least three were shot down. In response, Poland formally invoked NATO’s Article 4, calling for an emergency consultation between members (The Intel Brief).
  As for the Russian-Belarusian Zapad exercise, this is the 2025 iteration of the drills that Russia used to stage its 2022 invasion of Ukraine (DW).

• Poland’s Defense Posture: On 13 September, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that due to Russia’s recent drone incursions, Poland’s ground-based air defense (GBAD) assets have reached “the highest state of readiness” (X). On 14 September, Polish President Nawrocki announced that foreign troops would be allowed to enter Poland (NEXTA).

• Romania Scrambles Jets: On 13 September, Romania’s Ministry of National Defense stated that Russian drones breached Romania’s airspace (CBS News). The defense ministry stated that two Romanian F-16s shadowed the drone before it disappeared from radar (CBS News).

• Zapad 2025: Russia and Belarus are conducting their “Zapad 2025” exercise, traditionally focused on simulating large-scale offensive operations against NATO (CEPA). Zapad’s activities this year involve joint air and missile defense drills, logistics mobilization, and troop movements along NATO’s eastern frontier, and run from 12 to 16 September (Reuters, European Leaders Network).

Why This Matters
Poland and Romania’s mobilization following Russian drone incursions underscores the growing volatility along NATO’s eastern flank. By raising air defense readiness and permitting foreign troop deployments, Poland is signaling that it views Russian actions as deliberate escalation rather than isolated incidents. Romania’s interception of drones highlights the vulnerability of NATO’s Black Sea members, where Russian activity could destabilize regional security and strain alliance unity. The timing is particularly significant as Russia and Belarus conduct their “Zapad” exercise, which traditionally rehearses large-scale offensive operations against NATO. Against this backdrop, the drone incursions risk being perceived not as isolated provocations but as deliberate signals or tests of NATO’s resolve.

UK Experiences Massive “Unite The Kingdom” Protests

Summary
On 13 September, UK activist Tommy Robinson organized a “Unite the Kingdom” protest in London, United Kingdom. The protests drew hundreds of thousands of supporters and are one of the largest political demonstrations in the UK in decades. The protests included marches and speeches. Nearly 5,000 counter-protestors took to the streets, where clashes led to minor injuries and arrests. At the same time, various anti-immigration protests took place across the UK.

Findings

• Scale and Organization: Tommy Robinson, a “far-right activist,” organized the Unite the Kingdom protest due to mass migration to the United Kingdom (Reuters). Mainstream media claim nearly 100,000 to 150,000 people joined the protest, but videos show substantially larger crowds (Reuters, The Guardian). Reuters reports that nearly 5,000 counter-protestors with “Stand Up to Racism” attempted to disrupt or disuade the event (Reuters).

• Political Violence: Media reports that more than 25 police officers were injured, and anywhere from 25 to 30 people were arrested (Reuters, The Guardian). Prime Minister Starmer made remarks urging protestors not to clash with police, and suggested opposition to the “Unite the Kingdom” movement.

• Political Rhetoric: Mainstream media were quick to label the protests and events as “far-right” and nationalist due to the rhetoric, slogans, and imagery being used, such as the English flag, the Union Jack, St. George’s Cross, and anti-immigration slogans (Sky News, BBC). Tommy Robinson and his supporters claim the focus of the protests is to promote freedom of speech and national identity (X).

Why This Matters
The London demonstrations highlight a significant fracture inside British society over immigration and national identity. The march is a sign that anti-immigration sentiment is no longer a fringe issue, but a cause for mainstream political reform.

The support for Robinson and his “Unite the Kingdom” protest is potentially a major political shift for the United Kingdom, especially regarding support for political reform tied to civil liberties and immigration. Prime Minister Starmer, who is steadily losing support in Parliament and among UK voters, could face an early exit if he refrains from substantial domestic reforms. If mainstream parties continue ignoring these pressures, far-right movements could expand their influence and force policy changes directly.

The counter-protests also illustrate that immigration is now a polarizing wedge issue with both sides willing to mobilize in large numbers, raising the likelihood of recurring civil confrontations. Strategically, these protests could push the UK toward tougher border controls and stricter asylum policies, or they could deepen political instability if the government is seen as unable to maintain order.

U.S., UK Gain Access To Western Australian Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Upgrade

Summary
On 13 September, the Australian government announced the U.S. will gain access to a planned nuclear submarine maintenance facility at the Henderson shipyard in Western Australia. Part of a broader AUKUS pact (Australia-U.S.-UK), the facility is getting an ~$8 billion upgrade over the next two decades. Before Australia receives Virginia-class submarines, the shipyard will host rotating U.S. and UK vessels. The project will also include work on landing craft and frigates.

Findings

• Facility Upgrades: The Henderson shipyard near Perth will be modernized significantly. It will be built to service nuclear-powered submarines, with rotation of U.S. and UK vessels even before the full deployment of Virginia-class subs (Reuters, Modern Diplomacy). This significantly enhances U.S. naval operations and longevity in the region.

• Strategic Cooperation: Australia is deepening its defense cooperation with the U.S. and UK via the AUKUS framework, a security pact that was under review for termination by the Trump administration (The Guardian). This upgrade is among the most substantial infrastructure projects under that pact.

Why This Matters
By granting U.S. (and UK) access to a state-of-the-art submarine facility in Western Australia, Australia is cementing its role as a frontline partner in counterbalancing China’s maritime ambitions. The upgraded shipyard boosts operational readiness in the Indo-Pacific, reduces logistical gaps, and complicates any adversary’s calculations about projecting power in the region. It also protects the AUKUS framework from going under, something that was a growing possibility without a deal like this.

For U.S. geopolitical ambitions, this provides a more secure forward base for nuclear submarine operations, supports alliance credibility under AUKUS, and strengthens Australia as a hub in the U.S. effort to deter strategic pressure in the South China Sea, the Pacific Islands, and beyond.

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick