Good morning,

This is the premium edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review the critical geopolitical updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 10-14 July 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Points Of Interest

• Today, President Trump is expected to make remarks regarding the status of Ukraine peace negotiations. Trump has voiced his dissatisfaction with Putin’s negotiating and is expected to announce new sanctions on Russia and aid for Ukraine.

• Finland is the latest nation to withdraw from the 1999 Ottawa Convention, an agreement that bans the use of antipersonnel landmines. Earlier this year Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania withdrew from the agreement, citing the need to improve defenses along Europe’s border with Russia.

Trump Resumes Military Aid To Ukraine Via NATO Purchasing

Summary
On 11 July, President Trump announced that the U.S. is selling weapons to NATO allies for donation to Ukraine. This arrangement comes after the Pentagon, citing low stockpiles, briefly halted direct military aid to Ukraine, particularly air defense munitions. The reversal, which suggests disjointed decision-making between President Trump and Secretary Hegseth, was made after Trump and Zelenskyy held a brief phone call.

Findings

• Background: On 1 July, reporters questioned a State Department spokesperson about the sudden pause in aid to Ukraine. The spokesperson cited low stockpiles following a Department of Defense strategic review.
  On 4 July, President Trump reportedly held a phone call with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. Axios reported that Trump promised Ukraine 10 Patriot air defense interceptors.
  On 7 July, the Department of Defense released a statement stating that military aid to Ukraine will resume despite stockpile evaluations remaining in effect.

• Purchase for Donation Concept: President Trump recently stated the U.S. will resume aid to Ukraine by selling weapons and munitions to NATO for donation.

• NATO Procurement: Details of NATO purchases are sparse, but Germany and Norway are reportedly purchasing U.S. Patriot air defense systems.
  Germany’s Chancellor Merz stated Germany is “prepared to purchase additional Patriot systems” for Ukraine.
  On 10 July, Zelenskyy stated he was reassured that Germany would purchase two systems, and Norway one, for donation to Ukraine.

Why This Matters
Ukraine is in dire need of direct military aid, especially regarding air defense systems and munitions. In June and July, Russia markedly increased its drone and missile barrages against Ukraine.

However, aid to Ukraine and warfighting readiness are proving to be a difficult balancing act for the Pentagon. Hegseth and U.S. military leaders have made it clear that America’s focus is shifting, albeit slowly, to the Indo-Pacific due to the growing China threat. Recent events in the Middle East, particularly regarding American strikes on Iran and the defense of assets in Qatar, also demonstrated how America’s stockpiles can be quickly exposed to expenditure or redeployment.

Trump’s approach is an interesting compromise; by getting paid for the supply, Trump can argue that he is fulfilling an “America First” policy while not abandoning Ukraine and historic European allies. What we have to wait and see is whether or not purchases can be pushed through quickly, and if manufacturers can deliver at a relevant speed.

Sources: U.S. Department of State, U.S. Department of Defense, NBC News, PBS, The Kyiv Independent, BBC, DW

FY26 NDAA Advances In Senate, Parts Of FoRGED Act Folded In

Summary
On 11 July, the Senate Armed Services Committee voted 26-1 to advance the FY26 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The NDAA, which authorizes funding and authorities for the U.S. military and the Department of Defense, would secure $925 billion for FY26 national defense spending. A part of the NDAA is the FoRGED Act, a policy bill aimed at reforming defense acquisitions.

Findings

• NDAA Advances: On 11 July, the Senate Armed Services Committee voted 26-1 to advance the proposal. On 15 July, a full committee markup is scheduled.

• NDAA Focus: The FY26 gives the following allocations:

  • Department of Defense: $878.7 billion

  • Department of Energy: $35.2 billion

  • Defense Activities Outside NDAA Jurisdiction: $10.8 billion

  The major national security priorities, and therefore funding priorities, are outlined in the NDAA by regions, service branches, or mission sets. The NDAA also includes guidance for modernization, which includes investment and procurement of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Counter-UAS technology, and cybersecurity. It also includes details of service benefits, such as healthcare and education.

• FoRGED Core Adopted: The Senate NDAA folds in major elements of the Fostering Reform and Government Efficiency in Defense (FoRGED) Act (S.5618). These reforms target the Pentagon’s historically slow and bureaucratic acquisition system by cutting redundant reporting, modernizing oversight structures, and defaulting to commercial acquisition pathways when possible.

Why This Matters
The partial adoption of the FoRGED Act in the 2026 NDAA signals a bipartisan push to modernize how the U.S. military buys, tests, and fields new technologies, especially in competition with China’s rapid defense industrial base. By emphasizing commercial sourcing and lowering barriers for startups and nontraditional vendors, the NDAA could speed up prototyping and production of advanced systems that might otherwise get trapped in years of red tape.

However, shifting oversight from program-specific managers to portfolio executives is a cultural and operational leap that will require sustained training, new accountability mechanisms, and buy-in from legacy contractors. If executed well, these changes could make the Pentagon more adaptive and resilient—but without careful implementation, they risk creating gaps in oversight that adversaries or inefficient practices could exploit.

The advance of the FY26 NDAA by such a wide margin suggests continued bipartisan support for policy that is, historically, unified. The next step is a full markup of the proposal. The 2025 NDAA was made law in December 2024.

Sources: House Armed Services Committee, Senate Armed Services Committee, U.S. Congress, Federal News Network

Taiwan Launches Annual Han Kuang 41 Exercise Despite Chinese Threats

Summary
On 9 July, Taiwan commenced its annual Han Kuang military exercises. The exercise is the largest iteration to date, and is scheduled for 10 days and involves a record number of reservists. These drills are designed to simulate Taiwan’s defense of a full-scale Chinese invasion, including amphibious landings, cyberattacks, and "grey zone" tactics. The exercise fields newly acquired U.S.-made Abrams tanks and HIMARS rocket systems, underscoring Taiwan's enhanced defense posture amidst escalating Chinese military and economic pressure.

Findings

• Exercise Scope: Taiwan's Han Kuang 41 exercise will run from 9 to 18 July, and includes 24-hour operations. The associated drills involve all three services, and include a record mobilization of 22,000 reservists. This marks the longest and largest iteration of the drills to date.

• Training Objectives: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense emphasized a "pragmatic approach" and emphasized the need to simulate various battlefield scenarios and responses to unexpected situations to enhance combat readiness. The exercises fully rehearse military operations for defense and civil-military coordination efforts.
  Drills are designed to counter a full-scale Chinese invasion, including "grey zone tactics" (such as harassment by Chinese Coast Guard), defending critical infrastructure, and anti-landing operations. Urban resilience drills, including public evacuation procedures, are also planned.

• Chinese Actions: China’s government has condemned the drills. On 8 July, before Han Kuang 41 commenced, the PLA conducted 20 aircraft sorties into Taiwanese airspace. The joint air and naval incursions were a part of the PLA’s perpetual incursion policy and were conducted under the guise of “joint combat readiness patrols.”
  On 9 July, the PLAN aircraft carrier Fujian was observed returning to port after successfully completing its 8th sea trial.
  On 11 July, footage of Chinese amphibious assault operations taking place near Fujian surfaced online.
  Chinese propaganda published by the CCP-controlled Global Times attempted to delegitimize the Han Kuang 41 exercise:

Why This Matters
Taiwan's expanded Han Kuang exercises, especially their length and emphasis on realistic, continuous combat, suggest a growing commitment to national defense against a growing likelihood of Chinese invasion.

These drills offer crucial insights into Taiwan's evolving defense strategy, the integration of new U.S. hardware, and its comprehensive approach to deterrence, which now overtly includes civil-military coordination and counter-information warfare. This heightened readiness, coupled with China's strong condemnations and ongoing "grey zone" activities, underscores escalating cross-strait tensions as 2027 approaches. Intelligence professionals will be closely watching the drills for operational readiness, command resilience, and the effectiveness of new defense assets, while also monitoring China's response.

One of the interesting aspects of the drills is how Taiwan coordinates its political and legal response into would-be wartime actions, such as authorizing lethal force and mobilization. If done well, this will help shorten kill chains (due to quicker military responses through legal authorities), which allows Taiwan to better diminish China’s stand-off and first-strike advantage. It also, theoretically, helps facilitate allied intervention (specifically Japan and U.S. assets based in Japan, or other regional assets).

Sources: Taiwanese MND, Taiwanese MND, Reuters, BBC, The Washington Post

Russia Reportedly Considering Scrapping Its Sole Aircraft Carrier

Summary
On 11 July, the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia reported that Russia is considering decommissioning and scrapping its sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov. Russia’s aircraft carrier program has struggled for years, and was marked by accidents, delays, and high costs. The Admiral Kuznetsov’s age and operating strain have prompted the Kremlin to reconsider Russia’s aircraft carrier ambitions entirely.

Findings

• Scrapping Consideration: Izvestia, citing unnamed sources within the Russian Navy and the state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC), reported active discussions about abandoning further repairs and decommissioning the Admiral Kuznetsov.
  An account on Telegram known as BTVT also leaked the rumors online:

• Troubled Upkeep: The carrier entered dry dock for a major overhaul in 2017, which was expected to be completed by 2022. The modernization has been repeatedly delayed by a series of catastrophic incidents, including:

  • A crane collapse in October 2018 during a dry dock stint.

  • A fire in December 2019 during welding operations, resulting in fatalities and injuries.

  • Continued reports of alleged embezzlement of funds allocated for its repair.

  • Reports in April 2023 of the crew being disbanded.

• Arguments for Scrapping: Proponents of scrapping, including former Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergei Avakyants, argue that conventional aircraft carriers are "a relic of a bygone era," "very expensive and ineffective," and that the future of naval warfare lies with robotic and unmanned systems. They suggest it is economically and technically impractical to restore the physically outdated ship.

• Opposition to Scrapping: Most observers acknowledge the carrier's outdated design and unreliability; others argue that a modern air support platform is still essential for the Russian Navy's long-range deployments. It is possible Russia will commission a new carrier to replace the Admiral Kuznetsov.

Why This Matters
The potential scrapping of the Admiral Kuznetsov is important because it reflects a significant change in Russia's naval ambitions and capabilities. For years, this aircraft carrier, despite its well-known operational problems, has been a symbol of Russia's desire to project power globally, on par with other major naval forces.

Historically, the presence of aircraft carriers has been seen as a hallmark of a "blue-water" navy, capable of deploying air power far from its shores. The decision to abandon the Kuznetsov would highlight the severe limitations of Russia's defense industrial base and its financial capacity, especially under the pressures of ongoing military operations and international sanctions.

It also suggests Russia will continue having difficulties in projecting its power in support of its security partners, such as China or North Korea, who, in a potential conflict with the U.S.-led order, are expecting Russian backing.

While coverage suggests the decision is a pragmatic shift in naval strategy, prioritizing more affordable or effective platforms like robotic systems and unmanned aircraft, the decision is also a manifestation of Russia’s shrinking global influence; that Russia’s near future will prioritize affairs in the immediate European neighborhood.

Sources: The Moscow Times, Ukrinform

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

Have a great week.

— Nick