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With Operation Epic Fury ongoing and exceeding a month, let’s look at US objectives and progress, Iran’s disposition, and what is likely to follow.
Reporting Period: Up to April 31, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
Operation Epic Fury has exceeded initial timelines, evolving from air superiority and decapitation strikes into a sustained, large-scale air and maritime campaign. US and Israeli forces have degraded Iran’s conventional military capabilities and targeted critical infrastructure, including facilities at Kharg Island. Recent US deployments and amphibious training maneuvers indicate an increasing likelihood of limited ground operations, potentially focused on seizing key infrastructure and maritime terrain in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite operational success, Iran retains asymmetric capabilities and internal dynamics that could prolong conflict and increase risk to US forces and regional stability.
Operation Epic Fury Exceeds One Month As Ground Invasion Rumors Continue
Summary
Operation Epic Fury has exceeded initial timelines, evolving from air superiority and decapitation strikes into a sustained, large-scale air and maritime campaign. US and Israeli forces have degraded Iran’s conventional military capabilities and targeted critical infrastructure, including facilities at Kharg Island. Recent US deployments and amphibious training maneuvers indicate an increasing likelihood of limited ground operations, potentially focused on seizing key infrastructure and maritime terrain in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite operational success, Iran retains asymmetric capabilities and internal dynamics that could prolong conflict and increase risk to US forces and regional stability.
Findings and Analysis
Background: On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran (The Intel Brief). The strikes, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, were conducted to achieve an initial set of limited objectives (The Intel Brief):
Prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons
Force regime change via a large-scale decapitation strikes
Dismantle Iran’s network of terror (i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Quds Forces)
The initial assessment was that the US would need to sustain operations for “several days,” with estimates now suggesting an indefinite timeline (The Intel Brief). On March 15, US forces struck Iran’s Kharg Island, home to the country’s largest oil terminals and facilities (The Intel Brief). The strikes on Kharg Island also coincided with further naval deployments to the region, including the US Marine Corps’ 31st MEU and 11th MEU (The Intel Brief). As of March 30, the US has struck over 11,000 targets in Iran, destroying its navy, air forces, and political and military leadership (The White House).
Comment: The Trump administration’s main narrative and cause for striking Kharg Island was to pressure Iran into ceasefire talks, which allegedly include details for dismantling its terror proxies and nuclear program. Now, speculation is that US troops (likely US Marines and Army Airborne personnel) will be tasked with taking Kharg Island as a means of controlling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. I assess that while Kharg Island may be easy to take, it might be difficult to defend and could warrant a ground invasion of Iran’s southwest coast. Remember, despite the volume of strikes and a decrease in Iranian drone and missile attacks, Iran does still possess a significant drone and missile arsenal in underground facilities, which could be deployed against unsuspecting US assets across the Middle East at a later date.
US Marine and Army Airborne Operations: Currently, the 11th and 31st Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) are deployed to the Middle East (Military Times). On March 26, US Indo-Pacific Command confirmed that US Marines with the 11th MEU were observed conducting ship-to-shore operations aboard the USS Boxer (INDOPACOM). Likewise, Marines with the 31st MEU were observed conducting similar operations in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) (CENTCOM, X).
In addition to the Marines deployed to the region, upwards of 3,000 personnel with the US Army’s 82nd Airborne 1st Brigade Combat Team have deployed to the CENTCOM AOR (Telegraph, Fox News).
Comment: The deployment of the US military’s best conventional ground troops (i.e. Marines and Army Airborne) suggests an imminent ground operation in Iran, specifically an initial seizure of Kharg Island. Seizing Kharg Island, or territory along Iran’s southwest coast, could allow for the flow of follow-on forces such as command and control, logistics, air defense, and artillery units. This is a strategically tempting option for Washington, especially as the length of Operation Epic Fury increases. The deployment of these types of support forces would help facilitate air superiority and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Regionally, the deployment of such assets would give Washington the option to establish an air defense, sensor, and maritime security network, a major gap that has left US bases and regional allies exposed. Overall, such a posture would help facilitate an even larger ground invasion into Iran itself if deemed necessary.
Regime Change: After merely speculating about the possibility of regime change, on March 30, President Trump confirmed that his administration is “in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran” (The White House). Trump claims that if a “deal” is not reached the US will destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and energy revenue stream (The White House).
Domestic Resistance: On March 29, GoPro footage of irregular forces ambushing Iranian security forces in Nushabad, Iran, was published (Funker 530). Previously, the US had entertained the idea of using the CIA to arm revisionist factions inside Iran (CNN).
Warning: Graphic Content
Comment: While the irregular forces and their objectives in Iran are unknown, the actions suggest a growing anti-regime movement inside the country. Any domestic insurgency, regardless of mutual objectives, is a potential faction for US clandestine services to engage with. This kind of activity is typical of long-term nation-building and could indicate the emergence of a protracted conflict.
US Casualties: As of March 30, fifteen US servicemembers have been killed during Operation Epic Fury (Wikipedia). Non-US allied casualties currently total sixteen (Wikipedia).
In addition, The Wall Street Journal reports that anywhere from $1.4 to $2.9 billion in assets were damaged or destroyed during Operation Epic Fury (WSJ). This includes multiple MQ-9 Reaper drones, various aircraft (F-15Es, F-35s, KC-135s, and an E-3), and radars and air defense systems (Atlantic Council, MSN, Firstpost).
Comment: In addition to personnel and equipment losses, early reporting suggested that Operation Epic Fury is costing the US upwards of $1 billion a day (CSIS, Military Times). So, in addition to a massive defense expenditure, the stockpiles of advanced air defense, air-to-air, air-to-ground, and surface strike munitions are being depleted, leaving the US vulnerable should a near-peer conflict emerge.
End Brief
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— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.
Comments represent the analysis, opinions, and estimates of The Intel Brief writer(s).